INDIANAPOLIS — 12,167 practice laps were turned this month at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway in preparation for Sunday’s 107th Running of the Indianapolis 500 (11 a.m. ET, NBC, INDYCAR Radio Network). 200 laps are all that’s left before we crown another driver into immortality.

So, who will that said driver be?

It’s hard to pick against Chip Ganassi Racing right now. Ganassi cars were 1-2 on opening Day, 1-2 on Thursday, 1-2 on the four-lap average chart on Fast Friday, 2-3-4-13 on Monday and now 1-2-4 again on Miller Lite Carb Day.

In 2020, they led 119 of 200 laps. In 2021, they had 4 of the top 9 starters including 2 more on the front row with leading 42 of 200 laps and having 3 finishers in the top 11 including a runner-up. They didn’t have a win in either race.

Last year, they led 163 of 200 laps (82%).

That’s 324 of 600 (54%) of the overall laps led in the Aeroscreen era and already this month leading the charge. 

3 of their 4 drivers have won an Indy 500 before. Scott Dixon in 2008. Marcus Ericsson in 2022. Takuma Sato in 2017 and 2020. What’s wild is, Alex Palou, the pole sitter, has never won an Indy 500…yet.

He won the GMR Grand Prix two weeks ago. 8 days after that he won the pole for Sunday’s race. Now, can he sweep the month just as Simon Pagenaud did in 2019?

If not them, then don’t maybe Arrow McLaren Racing? They, like Chip Ganassi Racing, put all four cars in the top 10 of the starting lineup. They also now have the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th placed finishers from last year’s race too.

The thing is, the fastest car doesn’t always equate to a victory here. 500 miles and 200 laps is a long time of action to where a lot can happen. Problems on pit road, getting caught up in someone else’s mistake, a badly timed caution, different weather conditions, you name it, for a race this long, a lot can happen.

Which is why even though this looks like on the surface a Ganassi vs. McLaren battle, someone could always just as easily steal it away.

My Top 5 Prediction

1. 11 Sato – Too good to pass up. Sato went first, seventh, first, third and first respectively in practice sessions. He also won both of his Indy 500’s in three-year increments with two different teams. Andretti in 2017, Rahal in 2020, Ganassi in 2023…He starts 8th.
2. 9 Dixon – Another close runner-up. He was second to Sato on opening day, second on Day 2, 10th on Fast Friday, second on Monday and now second again on Carb Day. With Ganassi going 1-2 in 3 of the 4 races practices, why not in the race itself as well?
3. 5 O’Ward – My pick entering this month but I slide him down to third now. O’Ward was 20th, 8th, 9th and 15th respectively in the four race practices. He has 11 top four finishes in his last 12 oval starts including a runner-up here last year. He’s finished sixth, fourth and second respectively in this race and starts fifth. If it’s an overcast day, watch out as he can leapfrog both of the cars in front of him on this list.
4. 10 Palou – He’s been about the fourth best car in race trim all month. 4th on Wednesday, 9th on Thursday, fourth on Monday and fourth on Carb Day….
5. 27 Kirkwood – He told me just how good of a car that he’s had this month and I put my faith in him to bring the No. 27 Honda home fifth for a second straight year. Kirkwood was 5th in Carb Day practice…