Ross Chastain has been a winner twice during the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. On both instances, he used the same chassis and also entered the race 25-1 odds. Ironically enough, both were on a road course and superspeedway and each time was chaos coming to the checkered flag.
However, this time around last weekend in Talladega, no one chose Chastain meaning each of us fall $100 further back.
CJ is now -$163, Eric -$393 and Greg -$640.
Dover Preview Show here
Talladega recap show here
All of us had Erik Jones there in the end and was looking great to having a 70-1 winner which would have netted CJ $40, Eric $150 and Greg $250. Instead, we all not only get $0, we lose $100.
Now, we go to Dover to where we’ve seen a lot of domination lately. Is this the spot either Chase Elliott or Martin Truex Jr. can get into victory lane for the first time of the season?
Hendrick Motorsports went 1-2-3-4 last season there and look primed to contend for another victory this weekend.
Alex Bowman had a top three finish in both races in 2019 to go along with a fifth place run in race 2 of 2020 and a win last year gives him 4 top 5’s in his last 5 tries there. He also has 5 top 10’s in his last 6 starts on the season too.
William Byron was 4th in each of his last two starts there.
Elliott, has scored four top five finishes in his last six Dover starts. His other two finishes are 38th and 39th respectively.
The thing is, this very well could be a Kyle Larson type of race though too. He now has 3 top 5’s in the last 4 weeks on the season to go along with three straight top three finishes for him on the Monster Mile. He also has 10 top 10’s in his last 12 starts there including 7 of them being in the top five.
Joe Gibbs Racing hopes not.
Truex, has a win in the spring race of 2019 and three straight runner-ups to follow before being 19th last season. Since 2014, he has 12 top 10 finishes (15 starts) including eight top four finishes in his last 10 tries.
Denny Hamlin has 5 top seven finishes in his last seven Dover starts including a runner-up in 2018 and a victory in 2020. He also has just 1 top 10 all season still though.
For Kyle Busch, which one shows up this weekend? In the spring race, he has just one top 10 in his last seven tries if you ignore 2020 since it took place in late summer. In fact, his 10th place showing in 2019 was his only finish in the top 15 in that time frame. But, in his last six Fall races, Busch has six top 10’s including a win and two runner-ups. Now, the weekend’s are combined…
I don’t like the Penske drivers this weekend though. Heck, I don’t really like them much all month ahead now.
While the finishes are improving and the fact that they have 2 drivers in the top 6 of the points in great, the thing is, they’ve combined to land in victory lane also just once all season and that came back in the season opener in Daytona.
The 2 car has won twice in the last two years with both being in superspeedway’s at that. Joey Logano has just two wins in the last two years as well with one being on dirt and the other in a football stadium (Busch Light Clash). He’s not won a points paying race in over a year. His last non points paying race win not on dirt?
Oct. 18, 2020 in Kansas.
He’s had two wins in the last 77 races.
Ryan Blaney has been the most consistent in finding victory lane he hasn’t won since the 2021 regular season finale. In saying that, I also don’t expect much out of them this weekend in Dover either. I can make a strong case to where they won’t win a race at all this month.
Former driver Brad Keselowski, hadn’t had a top five in his last nine Dover starts. Blaney, has never had a top five in 11 Dover tries while Logano has two top fives in his last 13 Monster Mile appearances in Cup.
So, will their struggles continue?
Then, it’s to Darlington to where Cindric is a Cup rookie, Blaney has 1 top 10 and 0 top 5’s in 10 tries and Logano having having 0 wins and just 4 top 5’s in 16 starts.
From Darlington, we go to Kansas where Blaney has 5 finishes of 20th or worse in his last 6 starts. Logano won the 2020 Fall race but that’s his only top 5 in the last 7 starts there. 4 of his last 6 have seen him finish 15th or worse.
The next points paying race is Charlote where Blaney was third in 2020 but that’s his only top five in 10 oval starts there. Logano has 1 top 5 in his last 9 Charlotte oval starting including 6 of his last 8 being 13th or worse.
Cindric being a rookie means there’s not much to use for him. For Blaney, he has a total of 4 top five finishes on the May tracks with 3 of which being at Kansas.
For Logano, these also aren’t his better tracks.
2022 Winners:
Daytona – Austin Cindric (28/1)
Fontana – Kyle Larson (4/1)
Las Vegas – Alex Bowman (18/1)
Phoenix – Chase Briscoe (50/1)
Atlanta – William Byron (12/1)
COTA – Ross Chastain (25/1)
Richmond – Denny Hamlin (12/1)
Martinsville – William Byron (12/1)
Bristol Dirt – Kyle Busch (16/1)
Talladega – Ross Chastain (25/1)
Race Odds
4-1…K Larson
9-1…W Byron and C Elliott
10-1…A Bowman
12-1…R Blaney, D Hamlin, K Harvick, J Logano and M Truex Jr.
14-1…Kyle B
16-1…R Chastain and T Reddick
20-1…C Briscoe
25-1…C Bell
35-1…B Keselowski
50-1…Kurt B
60-1…A Cindric and Suarez
70-1…A Dillon
100-1…A Almirola, C Buescher, C Custer, E Jones, R Stenhouse Jr. and D Wallace Jr.
200-1…H Burton, T Dillon and J Haley
DURAMAX DRYDENE 400 PICKS: RACE 11
CJ Radune
K Larson…4-1…$27 ($108)
W Byron…9-1…$14 ($126)
C Elliott…9-1…$14 ($126)
A Bowman…10-1…$11 ($110)
R Blaney…12-1…$9 ($108)
J Logano…12-1…$9 ($108)
M Truex Jr…12-1…$9 ($108)
T Reddick…16-1…$7 ($112)
RECORD: 7 for 10
TOTAL: -37
Eric Smith
K Larson…4-1…$30 ($120)
W Byron…9-1…$15 ($135)
C Elliott…9-1…$15 ($135)
A Bowman…10-1…$15 ($150)
K Harvick…12-1…$10 ($120)
M Truex Jr…12-1…$10 ($120)
D Suarez…60-1…$3 ($180)
C Custer…100-1…$2 ($200)
RECORD: 4 for 10
TOTAL: -393
Greg DePalma
K Larson…4-1…$20 ($80)
W Byron…9-1…$10 ($90)
C Elliott…9-1…$25 ($225)
A Bowman…10-1…$10 ($100)
K Harvick…12-1…$25 ($300)
D Suarez…60-1…$5 ($300)
C Custer…100-1…$5 ($500)
RECORD: 2 for 10
TOTAL: -640
ARCHIVES
GEICO 500 PICKS: RACE 10
GEICO 500 WINNER: Ross Chastain
CJ Radune
R Blaney…10-1…$11 ($110) …11th
J Logano…12-1…$10 ($120) …32nd
A Cindric…14-1…$10 ($140) …21st
C Elliott…14-1…$10 ($140) …7th
B Wallace…14-1…$10 ($140) …17th
K Larson…16-1…$7 ($112) …4th
W Byron…18-1…$7 ($126) …15th
A Almirola…20-1…$6 ($120) …13th
A Bowman…20-1…$6 ($120) …9th
T Reddick…20-1…$6 ($120) …39th
C Bell…25-1…$5 ($125) …22nd
A Dillon…30-1…$4 ($120) …2nd
R Stenhouse Jr…30-1…$4 ($120) …30th
D Suarez…60-1…$2 ($120) …31st
E Jones…70-1…$2 ($140) …6th
RECORD: 0 for 1
TOTAL: -100
Eric Smith
R Blaney…10-1…$17 ($170) …11th
J Logano…12-1…$12 ($144) …32nd
B Keselowski…14-1…$12 ($168) …23rd
B Wallace…14-1…$10 ($140) …17th
K Harvick…16-1…$11 ($176) …10th
W Byron…18-1…$6 ($108) …15th
A Almirola…20-1…$7 ($140) …13th
C Buescher…25-1…$7 ($175) …38th
R Stenhouse Jr…30-1…$4 ($120) …30th
H Burton…50-1…$3 ($150) …34th
J Haley…60-1…$3 ($180) …12th
E Jones…70-1…$3 ($210) …6th
T Dillon…90-1…$3 ($270) …33rd
C Lajoie…100-1…$2 ($200) …14th
RECORD: 0 for 1
TOTAL: -100
Greg DePalma
R Blaney…10-1…$20 ($200) …11th
J Logano…12-1…$17 ($204) …32nd
C Briscoe…14-1…$6 ($84) …37th
B Keselowski…14-1…$6 ($84) …23rd
K Harvick…16-1…$15 ($240) …10th
W Byron…18-1…$5 ($90) …15th
T Reddick…20-1…$15 ($300) …39th
C Buescher…25-1…$3 ($75) …38th
Kurt B…25-1…$3 ($75) …16th
E Jones…70-1…$5 ($350) …6th
T Dillon…90-1…$5 ($450) …33rd
RECORD: 0 for 1
TOTAL: -100
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