PLYMOUTH, Wisc — Josef Newgarden is on the pole for Sunday’s REV Group Grand Prix (12 p.m. ET, NBCSN, INDYCAR Radio Network). Colton Herta will join him alongside. So, now that the field is set, how will this weekend’s NTT IndyCar Series race look at who wins it?
Practice 1
Practice 2
Starting Lineup
How The Race Will Look
This year’s race will look at lot different than years past. See, tire deg was the name of the game following practice on an unseasonably warm Friday afternoon in Elkhart Lake. That was attributed to the high temps as conditions were near 90 degrees on a warm summer Wisconsin day. But, with temps cooling down to the 60s for practice on Saturday morning and more seasonable in the 70s for qualifying, would the track rubber up more?
That answer is, no.
“Just a lot more difficult,” Josef Newgarden told me about comparing his 2018 domination to this weekend. “Much higher degradation. At least twice as much, I would say. So it’s going to be a different challenge than what it was in ’18.”
Newgarden, started on the pole and led 53 of 55 laps that day. He was third quickest in Friday, fastest on Saturday and won the pole later on Saturday afternoon. If he’s saying this year is harder, I believe him.
Herta, says that there’s a strong case to be made that Sunday’s race will come down to pit strategy too. With 55 laps and not many cautions to ruin your windows, this used to be a pretty straightfoward event. Now, with such high tire fall off, a 3 stop vs. 4 stop strategy could come into play for Sunday’s race.
“I think it depends,” he said. “There might be some people that really struggle with deg. Who knows, it could be a four-stop. Ever since they put in the two pit speed limiters, the 90 miles an hour down to 45, pit lane has gotten a lot quicker. You don’t lose much time.
“It all depends how bad the day gets. If it gets really bad, guys might try it.”
Newgarden agreed.
“I think you’ll see good and bad cars,” he said. “Depending on where those good and bad cars in race condition are could create a lot of excitement. On tire deg in position, he may gobble some people up right in front of him moving to top five on the stint. Same thing up front. If we’re bad on our tires up front, maybe I’m just trying to hold everybody back.
“Just like the Detroit situation. Very exciting race at the end because people were struggling to get tires up to temperature. I was running out of tire life. It just creates excitement.
“It’s not fun to drive necessarily. It’s easier when the tire is really consistent. But when you get that separation with good and bad cars on tire life, it’s exciting to watch. I think you could have that type of storyline for tomorrow.”
Herta said that Sunday’s race could related to more like watching an oval race.
“Good cars tend to go to the front, whereas on a road course sometimes you can hold guys off a little longer,” he continued. “It’s going to be like Josef said. I think it’s going to be a tire race. Tire deg is going to be the talk of it. Whoever has the best car that’s nailed down at the rear the most, if they can save those rear tires, especially non the reds, is going to be the best.
“It’s surprising, too, because even the black tires don’t seem to be so good with deg this weekend, too. There is deg at a similar rate of deg with the reds.”
So, in saying that, who does this bode well for?
Well, the guys up front are up front for good reason. They’re fast. Newgarden, was third and first respectively in practice and has three podiums in his last five Road America starts. Herta, was sixth and second in the two practices and was eighth in 2019 and scored a pair of fifth place runs last year.
Will Power has four top fives in six Road America starts. He rolls off fourth. Simon Pagenaud has three top 10’s in his last five Road America tries. He rolls off sixth.
That’s three Penske’s in the top six with two Andretti cars and a Ganassi driver all up front. Combined, nine of the top 10 starters belong to the “Big 3” teams or their alliance (Meyer Shank Racing with AA). Romain Grosjean (Dale Coyne Racing/Rick Ware Racing) is the lone representative outside of that in seventh.
That’s worth noting in the sense that all six races since we’ve been coming back to Elkhart Lake in 2016 have been won by Penske, Ganassi and Andretti. That plus four of the six winners in that time frame coming from a top five starting spot including 12 of the last 13 series races overall heading into Indy last month, you get the feel that if this race stays dry, the winner is coming from Newgarden, Herta, Jack Harvey, Power, Alex Palou or Pagenaud, even with tire wear being a thing.
Prediction
- 2 Newgarden
- 26 Herta
- 27 Rossi
- 22 Pagenaud
- 51 Grosjean
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