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Martin Truex Jr.

 Truex won the last time we were in Vegas (September) for a playoff race and has eight Top-11 finishes on the 1.5-mile track including five Top-4 efforts and two wins in his last nine starts. He’s won 12 races on 1.5-mile tracks since 2016, nearly two times as much as the next closest driver.

Kevin Harvick

Another good driver here. Harvick has three Top-4 finishes in his last five Vegas starts, including a win in 2018 and a runner-up last fall. 

Brad Keselowski 

He has three Top-3 finishes in his last four starts in Vegas to go along with 10 consecutive Top-7 finishes there overall. 

Joey Logano 

He won the spring race for the second straight year and has nine straight top 10 finishes in Vegas. 

Longs shot to bet

Ryan Blaney

He has three fifth place finish in his last five Vegas starts and five top seven’s in his last seven tries overall. 

Jimmie Johnson

Johnson’s a four time Vegas winner and finished fifth this past spring. 

Alex Bowman

Bowman, was sixth in last September’s race in Vegas and if not for a late caution, was going to be in the top two this past spring. 

Austin Dillon

Dillon has another great chance again as he finished 12th in this race last year and fourth in the spring. If all those top guys struggle, Dillon could yet again score a top five, his third in four playoff races run. 

Aric Almirola

He has three top 10 finishes in his last five Vegas starts.

South Point 400 Race Preview

The first race of the second round is here. This may be one of the most important races of the playoffs other than Martinsville (Nov. 1) and Phoenix (Nov. 8). See, with what’s looming next, you don’t want to be heading to the final two races of the Round of 12 behind the eight ball. 

Next Sunday’s race is at the Talladega Superspeedway. A week later, it’s to the Charlotte ROVAL. Those are two wildcard races and both close out the second round. There’s not much in your control at either venue, meaning you might as well control your own business when you can this weekend at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. 

Two drivers in Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin don’t have too much to worry about as they have enough playoff points banked that they can withstand a couple of bad races this round. But, can they avoid three?

Hamlin finished 15th in this race last year and 17th this past spring. He’s not had a top five finish in his last seven Vegas starts with five of his last seven results being 15th or worse. He enters with one top 10 in his last five tries on the season too.

Harvick, does have three top four finishes in his last five Vegas starts though, so he may be in good shape. His teammates though may not. Aric Almirola was 13th last year and 21st in February. Clint Bowyer hasn’t had a top five in his last 13 Vegas starts as he’s been 18th or worse in seven of his last 10 Vegas tries. 

The Busch brothers may also struggle. The problem is, they have five combined playoff points and need solid finishes Sunday to not going into the two wildcard races of this round in a hole. 

Kyle has finished 15th or worse in three of his last six Vegas starts too including two straight. Kurt has five finishes of 21st or worst, three of which 30th or worse, in his last six tries. 

To me, this race is between the two Hendrick Motorsports drivers that are still championship eligible and the two Penske’s that are too. 

Chase Elliott has two top 10’s in his last three Vegas starts but also has been 26th or worse in four of his seven Vegas tries. He did sweep both stages in February though as I think he may be fine. 

Alex Bowman was sixth in this race last year and if not for a late race caution, was a top two car at the end in February. 

Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have combined to win four of the last seven Cup races at Vegas with Logano winning the last two spring races. Logano has nine consecutive top 10 finishes on this track with Keselowski 10 straight. 

Austin Dillon has another great chance again as he finished 12th in this race last year and fourth in the spring. If all those top guys struggle, Dillon could yet again score a top five, his third in four playoff races run. 

Betting The Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Stage 2 Success

Here’s a strange but true stat, the second stage winner at Vegas has won all but one of the five races under the stage racing era. Joey Logano finished fifth in Stage 2 back in February but wound up in victory lane later. 

Vegas Wins For The Grown Folks

Joey Logano’s spring win last year was the first time that a Cup winner was under the age of 30 in any of the last 12 races run at the track. The recent trend shows that the drivers over the age of 30 will be contending for the win on Sunday.

Aero Package Has Promoted Clean Racing

Vegas, was recently repaved and that mixed with the new aero package meant some clean racing. The track has more lanes to race on, but the horsepower is down from 750 to 550 still and the spoiler is also still raised. The aero ducts are in place as well again.

The 2019 spring race saw two caution flags fly — both for stage breaks. In the race in 2018, we saw only four cautions fly for just 29 laps. In the playoff race last year, we only saw four more yellows, half for stage breaks too, for 22 combined yellow flag laps. This past spring, we only had five cautions for 28 laps. 

That’s why I can see another clean race on Sunday.

STAT TO WATCH

Over the last nine Cup races in Vegas, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano have combined to win them all.

Also, Penske, SHR and JGR/Furniture Row have won the last 11 Vegas races. The last non team of them to win? Roush/Fenway Racing (Carl Edwards) in 2011.