The time is here. The regular season of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule will wrap up for Saturday night’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 (7:30 p.m. ET, NBC, MRN). 25 races down, one left before we start the 10 race postseason as the NASCAR schedule officially gets back to normal.
To have a cut off race though at the Daytona International Speedway is going to cause a lot of fireworks even with the race moving off the Fourth of July race weekend for just the second time ever. The other came in the wildfires in 1998.
Still, we have 13 drivers that have clinched a spot to the postseason with three more spots available for the taking. Clint Bowyer just needs to finish 34th or better on Saturday night and he gets one of them. That would leave two spots for three drivers right now with Matt DiBenedetto, William Byron and Jimmie Johnson being separated right now by just nine points between them. Byron to Johnson is only four points at that. As we sit, two make it and one’s championship hopes are over. So, who gets those spots?
DiBenedetto was sitting pretty a few races ago, but lost 35 points at Dover. He went from +44 to +9.
“I hate to be negative, but if we were going somewhere else, I would feel better about it,” DiBenedetto said about Daytona and his spot in the standings. “We have been pretty strong at most tracks aside from here. I have struggled here (Dover). Going to Daytona where the Fords are strong, but I have ended up in the infield care center the last two years there.
“We keep getting caught up in everyone’s mess. I am going to sit and hope and pray all week that we can just come out of there clean and make the playoffs.”
DiBenedetto notes that they shouldn’t be this close to the bubble. It’s frustrating for them. A few races at Texas and Kansas really hurt them by being caught up in someone else’s crashes. Then, factor in Dover and you get what was once a comforting ride to a nervous one this week.
“I have crashed in the back, the middle, running second a couple of times,” DiBenedetto said of Daytona and his strategy. “On the bottom, the middle, the top. You name it. I have been minding my own business and gotten wiped out. So, sometimes it doesn’t really matter how smart you race and what you do and all the things you do right, even if you are running first or second. A lot is out of your hands at those places.
“I am just frustrated that we are even in this position that we are on the bubble and this close.”
Johnson agrees with DiBenedetto saying Daytona is like a craps table. Despite that, Johnson isn’t as worried about his playoff future as DiBenedetto is.
“I’ve been doing this too long to worry too much,” Johnson said. Championship pressure, thankfully I’ve been through that a bunch of different times. I guess actually maybe that’s where experience will play through for me this weekend and I’ll be able to keep my head on straight, think, keep my emotions in check and really race with a clear and open mind.
His Hendrick Motorsports teammate of William Byron isn’t too nervous either and says that he will be doing a lot this week to not focus on the racing side so the pressure doesn’t amount for him.
Well, two of them may actually end up missing it if someone behind them wins though. It’s entirely possible too.
Amazingly, five drivers who are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, have hoisted Daytona trophies in NASCAR’s premier series, and the list reads like a “Who’s Who” in the sport. In order to guarantee a spot in the playoffs, they will need yet another piece of historic “World Center of Racing” hardware. They include:
- Jimmie Johnson, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet; the seven-time NASCAR Cup Series Champion is currently 17th in NASCAR Cup standings, winner of two DAYTONA 500s (2006, 2013) and one Coke Zero Sugar 400 (2013). He is the last driver to sweep both Daytona Cup races in a single season.
- Erik Jones, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota; Currently 17th in NASCAR Cup standings, winner of the 2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing Chevrolet; Currently 24th in NASCAR Cup standings and pole sitter for this year’s DAYTONA 500, winner of the 2017 Coke Zero Sugar 400
- Ryan Newman, No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing Ford, currently 25th in NASCAR Cup standings, the 2008 DAYTONA 500 Champion
- Matt Kenseth, No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing Chevrolet; Currently 28th in NASCAR Cup standings, a two-time DAYTONA 500 Champion (2009, 2012).
If any of them wins on Saturday night, Byron or DiBenedetto are out. You also can’t count out guys like Bubba Wallace (2nd in 2018 Daytona 500), Ty Dillon (3 top 6’s in last 5 Daytona starts), Corey LaJoie (2 consecutive Daytona top 10’s), Michael McDowell (3 top 10’s last 6 Daytona starts) or Chris Buescher (4 top 10’s last 6 Daytona starts, 3 of which top 5’s, 3rd in February).
But, I also wouldn’t put it past one of the top guys to win either. Ryan Blaney was second in February and has three straight top two finishes on superspeedway’s. He won at Tallladega this past June.
Joey Logano won his Duel in February and has 19 top 10 finishes (5 wins, 4 runner-ups) since the Fall race at Talladega in 2015. Kevin Harvick has seven wins, all since the break, has 11 top five finishes in his last 12 starts on the season and was fifth back in February.
A couple of favorites I wouldn’t risk on is Chase Elliott (0 top 10’s in 9 Daytona starts) and Martin Truex Jr. (4 top 5’s in 61 superspeeday starts, 0 wins). While they enter on hot streaks this season, don’t risk on them this weekend.
So, who gets in and who doesn’t?
Give me Bowyer, Johnson and Byron taking the playoff spots and Harvick for the win.
