TRACK: Dover International Speedway (1 mile Oval) DISTANCE: 311 Laps – STAGE 1: 100 Laps, Stage 2: 100 Laps, FINAL STAGE 111 LAPS, 311 Miles)
WEATHER: RAIN 20%, 83 degrees high

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Kevin Harvick

Why not? Four straight top six finishes including a win. He was fourth in both races a year ago.

Denny Hamlin

Hard to ignore here. One of the fastest drivers of the season has three top seven finishes in his last four Dover starts including a runner-up in 2018.

Martin Truex Jr. 

The speed is there. Truex, won the spring race and was runner-up in the fall race at Dover last year. Since 2014, he has 10 top 10 finishes (12 starts) including six top four finishes in his last seven tries.

Kyle Busch

Which Busch shows up this weekend? In the spring race, he has just one top 10 in his last six tries. In fact, his 10th place showing last year was his only finish in the top 15 in that time frame. But, in his last six Fall races, Busch has six top 10’s including a win and two runner-ups. Now, the weekend’s are combined.

Chase Elliott

He’s scored two top five finishes in his last three Dover starts including a win in 2018.

Sleepers

Alex Bowman

A top three finish in both races a year ago. Definitely worth a risk this weekend.

Clint Bowyer

May be his chance. Bowyer, has four top 10 finishes including a runner-up in the spring race in 2018, in his last five starts on the Monster Mile.

Erik Jones

Two top six finishes in his last three Dover tries qualifies him as a strong sleeper.

Drydene 311 Race Preview

If you’re looking for a longer shot winner, this isn’t your weekend. Dover has not one, but two 311 mile races on tap for consecutive days. While we will get a top 20 invert for Sunday’s race based off the finishing order for Saturday, I still expect the cream to rise to the top when it’s all said and done.

An odd trend though is, since the stage era started in 2017, the eventual race winner has finished in the top 10 at the end of the two stages per race in all but one try. Furthermore, 10 of the 12 stages run have seen the eventual race winner finish in the top five. In the final stage (6 times) the race winner finished in the top 10 in all of them with a top five finish in five of the six. Three of the last four final stages have seen the eventual race winner finish either 1st or 2nd at that.

So, with Race 1 being started off by owners points, look for the guys up front to hang out and make sure that they are in position for the win by the end of Stage 2.

For the Sunday race, they will be sure that they find their ways to the front for the end of the second stage as well. That could mean pit strategy calls.

So, who will be in that position you may ask?

Joe Gibbs Racing has to have the leg up. While we’ve had six straight different winners at Dover, they’re consistently the best among all NASCAR Cup Series teams. Ford, has one win in their last 17 tries. That essentially eliminated big teams like Stewart-Haas Racing and Team Penske. Rightfully so too.

The Penske trio has struggled over the years in Dover. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have just one top five each in their last 10 Monster Mile starts including three straight outside of the top 10 from Keselowski. Logano, has been 13th or worse in five of his last eight Dover tries.

Ryan Blaney has never finished better than eighth at Dover with five of his last seven being 15th or worse.

For SHR, Cole Custer is a rookie and Aric Almirola’s last seven finishes there are 31st, 16th, 25th, 11th, 13th, 16th and 17th respectively. Clint Bowyer has never won at Dover while Kevin Harvick may have to carry the load for them with four straight top six finishes.

For Chevy, Jimmie Johnson’s last win came at Dover….but in 2017. He’s not finished in the top five in each of his last four Dover starts. William Byron has one top 10 in four tries, while Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman figure to play a role, but do you trust them right now?

Kurt Busch has no finishes better than fifth since his 2011 win.

See why I’m on the JGR train now?

Denny Hamlin has three top seven finishes in his last four Dover starts. Martin Truex Jr. finished in the top two in both races last year. He has 10 top 10 finishes (12 starts) including six top four finishes in his last seven tries. Erik Jones has two top six finishes in his last three Dover starts. That leaves the curious case of Kyle Busch.

Which Busch shows up this weekend? In the spring race, he has just one top 10 in his last six tries. In fact, his 10th place showing last year was his only finish in the top 15 in that time frame. But, in his last six Fall races, Busch has six top 10’s including a win and two runner-ups. Now, the weekend’s are combined.

While the playoffs are looming, Dover will be a predictable weekend with the top drivers winning.

Key Stat

The pole winner has won 13 times at Dover. But, what’s odd is, there’s not been a pole winner to win on the Monster Mile though since 2011. Furthermore, four times since 2016 though, has the second place starter actually won out including three of the last five races there.

They Said It

Can Bowman Get Back On Track?

Alex Bowman started the 2020 season off hot. Bowman, was in the lead in the second race of the season at Las Vegas before a late race caution came out. He was a sitting duck. Whatever he did in the late race situation of whether to pit or not, the others would do the opposite. That’s exactly what happened. He pit, everyone minus Ryan Blaney stayed out and he lost the race as a result.

A week later, he dominated in Fontana en route to his second career win. Then, following a race in Phoenix a week later, the coronavirus caused the season to come to a halt.

But, we got back going in May and Bowman picked up where he left off with a runner-up in the first race back to competition on May 17 at Darlington. Unfortunately, it’s really been all downhill from there.

In the last 18 starts, Bowman has yet to finish in the top five. He’s only scored four top 10 finishes in those 18 races. Those early season championship aspirations have since been swapped to just make it out of the opening round.

Maybe though, Bowman can get rolling again this weekend and take some momentum into the postseason.

Bowman, finished runner-up in the spring race at Dover last year and was third in the Fall. With two races on tap at the Monster Mile this weekend, this is a prime opportunity for the Arizona native to get some good karma on his side before he embarks on what is going to be a wild playoffs.

Which Kyle Busch Shows Up?

This has been a frustrating season for the defending NASCAR Cup Series champion. Kyle Busch is winless in 23 starts. Furthermore, he’s reached victory lane just once over his last 45 races. That’s not up to championship standards.

Busch, has been vocal that he needs more practice. The lack of on track time has hurt his No. 18 Toyota. They’re left just guessing on setups each weekend which in turn has greatly taken away his pace from last year.

Just a short session each weekend would go a long way to figuring out setups and ride heights and all that goes into making this car a race winning contender. But, NASCAR has outlawed practice for the rest of this season, meaning that they’re stuck with what they’ve got.

That’s why I feel like this weekend could be the spot that Busch maybe comes out of his slump. It’s not like he’s been that far off. While Busch isn’t leading the laps and hogging all the playoff points this year, he does have seven top five finishes, three of which being runner-ups.

Plus, he has two shots on the same race track this weekend. Essentially Saturday’s race could be a 311 mile practice session to get ready for Sunday. It paid off in the first doubleheader weekend in Pocono. He was fifth in Race 1 and had a top three car in Race 2. Unfortunately, Ryan Blaney wrecked him in the Tunnel Turn in the second race of the weekend.

Plus, look at his stats in the two races at Dover already.

In the spring race, he has just one top 10 in his last six tries. In fact, his 10th place showing last year was his only finish in the top 15 in that time frame. But, in his last six Fall races, Busch has six top 10’s including a win and two runner-ups. Now, the weekend’s are combined.

I expect more out of Busch for Sunday than Saturday. Maybe even a race win at that.

Not 1 Of Penske’s finer tracks

Team Penske isn’t necessarily looking forward to this weekend’s doubleheader in Dover. See, they do sit 2-3-6 in the overall points standings heading into the final three races of the regular season. Where this is important is, you get bonus points for finishing in the top 10 of the final regular season points standings.

You get 15 additional playoff points for being the regular season champion. You get 10 more points to finish second. Third gets nine and so on.

Playoff points go a long way at securing a spot into additional rounds. So, for the Penske trio, they have accumulated a lot of them already and even more will speak volumes. That’s why, they’re looking for just solid days on both Saturday and Sunday at the Dover International Speedway.

The big reason is, Dover isn’t one of their strong suits. The Penske trio has struggled over the years in Dover. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have just one top five each in their last 10 Monster Mile starts including three straight outside of the top 10 from Keselowski. Logano, has been 13th or worse in five of his last eight Dover tries.

Ryan Blaney has never finished better than eighth at Dover with five of his last seven being 15th or worse.

With needing points this weekend, just solid top 10’s would suffice.

Last Chance To Control Destiny

The playoff picture is getting more and more clearer. That’s because the regular season is winding down. Just three races remain before we set the 2020 playoff field. Two of those three will occur this weekend on the Monster Mile. With that being said, these are really the last two chances one would have at controlling their own destiny.

See, we have 10 winners in 23 races thus far. That means 10 drivers locked in with six spots available for wildcards. But, with only three races left, that also means that we will at least have three wildcard spots available too.

So, lets the positioning commence.

Aric Almirola and the Busch brothers hold onto the top three wildcard spots. They can essentially clinch playoff spots this weekend even if they don’t win and as long as no one new wins behind them. So, you can rest assured that these three will play it conservative for both races.

That leaves Clint Bowyer and Matt DiBenedetto sweating it out. As long as we don’t get two more winners, that opens up two more spots meaning we know only one spot is left for Daytona. Here’s why.

There’s one race in Daytona. It’s a race anyone can win and is a true wildcard. If we get say Ricky Stenhouse Jr. win, that eliminates 16th in the playoff standings right now. That puts Bowyer and DiBenedetto in so long as they don’t drop down to last in the wildcard standings. Right now, they’re good. They need to remain there through the Dover weekend and distance themselves from 16th.

If that happens, then you can make a case to where all 10 race winners and the top five in the wildcard standings can breathe easy next Saturday night in Daytona. It would shape up a battle between 16th in the playoff standings on down for that final spot, should they win.

You have that points battle for 16th between a handful of drivers to get the final spot on points so long as someone ahead of them wins next Saturday night. You also have the battle from 16th on back too just in case someone new wins because they get in.

That’s why at Dover, you can at least race and control your own destiny. If you can win one of these two races this weekend, the worry for Daytona is low.