It seems like every time we go to a superspeedway that we have to talk about the potential for fluke winners. In reality though, the wiser bets for Talladega are on the usual suspects that normally run up front instead of a hot longshot.

Since 1995, we’ve really only seen what you could consider six “fluke” winners at the Talladega Superspeedway. That’s six in the last 50 races on the 2.66-mile high banked oval. Even out of those six, a few aren’t all that flukish after all.

Bobby Hamilton’s win was. Brian Vickers’ win in 2006 would fall under that category as well. Brad Keselowski’s win in 2009 would too but he’d later become one of the greats on superspeedway’s, so looking back on it, it’s not as much as a fluke now as it was then. David Ragan’s win in 2013 would be one, but that’s about it. You could throw Ricky Stenhouse Jr’s win in 2017 as one but he’d win later in Daytona that season too. Same for Aric Almirola’s in 2018 as both of his wins have come on superspeedway’s.

That’s it.

Just six times since 1995 has a driver earned their first or second career wins at Talladega.

What about Daytona? It’s the opposite actually.

They’ve had more fluke winners than Talladega in recent years. Just look at their recent winners in fact.

Justin Haley (1st career win) in last July’s Coke Zero Sugar 400. Erik Jones (1st career win) in the 2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400. Austin Dillon (2nd career win) in the 2018 Daytona 500. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (2nd career win) earned the 2017 Coke Zero Sugar 400 win. That’s four of the last six points paying Cup Series race winners at Daytona earning either their first or second career victory. Kurt Busch was kind of a fluke for the 2017 Daytona 500 race as that was his first career points paying restrictor plate victory.

Aric Almirola’s 2014 Coke Zero Sugar 400 triumph was his first career Cup win. Trevor Bayne and David Ragan each won their first career Cup races at Daytona in 2011.

The fluke winners come at Daytona for whatever reason, but that hasn’t been the case for Talladega.

So, if you’re looking for a wise wager on Sunday’s race, I’d throw money the way of the favorites.

The problem is, the top drivers haven’t fared real well at Talladega or superspeedway’s in general recently.

Martin Truex hasn’t had a top 10 finish at Talladega since 2015. He was fifth in the spring race that year and seventh in the playoff race. That fifth place run is his only top five at Dega since 2007.His last six Talladega finishes have all been 20th or worse.

Kyle Busch is a past Talladega winner. But, that victory was way back in 2008. He does have two top three finishes in his last four Spring race starts and three top 10’s in the same time frame, but if you throw in the Fall race, Busch has three top 10 finishes in his last 12 overall Talladega starts as well. Busch, finished 10th at Talladega back last April but that and two top five finishes in the 2016 and 2017 spring races are the only top 10 finishes he’s had on the 2.66-mile oval since 2014.

Hamlin may be the superspeedway king and has been stellar in the Fall race (3rd, 6th, 4th, 3rd in the last 4 years) but his spring race finishes since 2011 are 23rd, 23rd, 34th, 1st, 9th, 31st, 11th, 14th and 36th respectively. That means Denny Hamlin may be out too. He’s only had four top fives at Talladega since 2010.

Toyota had just one car in the top 18 of the Spring race at Talladega back in April and three in the top 10 last Fall. They had just two cars (8th, 14th) in the top 21 of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona back in July and one in the top 17 this past February.

Toyota also has just one Dega victory since 2009 and only three overall.

Then there’s Kevin Harvick. He’s finished 17th or worse in four of his last five Talladega starts. Also, he has one top five finish on the track since the playoff race at Talladega in 2011 (17 starts).

Almost half of his last 24 Talladega starts have seen him finish 20th or worse.

His teammate Clint Bowyer has just one top five finish since 2014 there. Jimmie Johnson has seven finishes of 12th or worse in his last nine Talladega starts.

Brad Keselowski should be a favorite but he’s been involved in a lot of incidents on superspeedway’s lately. Keselowski’s last three superspeedway finishes are 12th, 13th, 39th, 25th and 36th respectively. Furthermore, nine of his last 12 superspeedway starts have seen him finish 30th or worse.

6 of the last 11 superspeedway race winners in Cup competition have earned either their first or second career victories in them. But, 4 of the last 6 at Talladega and 5 of the last 7 at Daytona, saw drivers won their first or second superspeedway race on them too.