Jimmie Johnson should have been listed as one of the favorites to win Wednesday night’s Blue-Emu Maximum Paint Relief 500 (7 p.m. ET, FS1, MRN) at the Martinsville (VA) Speedway. After all, he’s arguably one of the best to race at the .526-mile Virginia paperclip.

Johnson, may only have one top five in his last 11 Martinsville starts, but he does have nine wins, 19 top five finishes and 24 top 10’s in 36 overall tries on the paperclip. He’s showing more and more speed this year compared to years past.

Also, Martinsville is a place where HMS earned their first ever victory back in 1984 and have seen them win 24 times there overall, most among all tracks that they’ve ever raced on. The organization’s drivers have scored 79 top-five finishes and 123 top-10s and led 9,124 laps at Martinsville since 1984 — all three of which are Hendrick Motorsports records at any track.

With Johnson having what should have been five straight top 11 finishes on the season including a seventh place run last Sunday in Atlanta and third a week prior in Bristol, that would make him a favorite right?

Instead, Clint Bowyer made a charge through the field at the end of the race in Atlanta and kept Johnson 13th in the points standings. How crucial was that?

The biggest key to winning at Martinsville on Wednesday night is going to be the draw for the starting lineup. The top 12 in owners points will start in the top 6 Rows. But, those who get a top 10 starting spot better their chances at victory. Eight of the last nine Martinsville race winners have come from a top 10 starting spot. The funny thing about that is, no one has won from the front row since 2013 and only three front row starters have won since 2009.

Johnson, was heading towards finally being in the top 12 of the points again and depending on the draw, would have started no worse than 12th. Now, he’ll start 21st.

By comparison, Bowyer drew the fourth starting spot.

Bowyer, went from 26th to 20th in the end of the race in Atlanta. That’s a difference of six points for him. Right now, Bowyer leads Johnson by three points in the standings. If Bowyer finished 24th or worse on Sunday, it would be Johnson in 12th and a chance to start anywhere from 1st to 12th on Wednesday night.

Now, Johnson has a 105 race winless streak and needing help to not extend it to 106.