TRACK: Atlanta Motor Speedway (1.54-Mile, Dogleg Oval) DISTANCE: 325 Laps – STAGE 1/2 85 LAPS, FINAL STAGE 155 LAPS (500.5 MILES)
WEATHER: SUN RAIN 15%, 85 degrees, cloudy

Lineup

Podcast

Greg DePalma, C.J. Radune (RotoWire) and Eric Smith (Race Review Online) recap Brad Keselowski‘s surprising win at Bristol, slipping underneath Chase Elliott and Joey Logano as that duo made contact with each other and the wall with three laps to go. It was the second time in three races that Keselowski has stolen a victory in the final laps. They also look at NASCAR’s latest schedule tweaks – no fans at The Brickyard – before turning attention to this week’s Folds of Honor 500 at Atlanta, where Keselowski has won two of the past three.

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Kevin Harvick (+500)

Harvick is a lap leader king in Atlanta. The California native has led 100 or more laps in six of his last eight Atlanta starts including 195, 116, 131, 292, 181 and 45 respectively in his last six tries. Harvick, also has 11 top 10 finishes in his last 13 starts on the Georgia race track too. However, despite all of that dominance up front, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver has only scored two victories in 29 tries there. The first coming in his first start in 2001 and the last coming in 2018. Over his last five starts, he’s finished second, sixth, ninth, first and fourth respectively. Also, on aged tracks, Harvick was ninth, first and third respectively on them this season.

Chase Elliott (+650)

He should have won each of the last four Cup races. All of them he was in the top two with the best shot of winning. Now, it’s to his home track where Elliot has three top 10 finishes in four tries. Ride the hot hand.

Alex Bowman (+800)

While he has failed to score a finish better than 15th at Atlanta, Bowman has been at his best on older surfaces this season. He won in Fontana and was second in Darlington 1. While he’s run into a string of bad luck, the speed of his No. 88 Chevrolet didn’t go anywhere.

Joey Logano (+900)

He’s a two time winner this season and was two laps away from vying for a win with Chase Elliott last Sunday in Bristol. Logano, has been had his best at Atlanta every since joining Team Penske. In six starts there with Joe Gibbs Racing, his best finish was 18th. In seven starts with Penske, he’s finished worse than 14th just once. In fact, Logano has four top six finishes in seven tries.

Brad Keselowski (+900)

The Team Penske driver has five straight top 10 finishes in Atlanta including three straight top two results. Two of those top two finishes are wins including just last year. Keselowski, also has two top five finishes in three tries on older surface race tracks this season too. He’s won the last two Sunday Cup races run this season as well.

Martin Truex Jr. (+900)

He’s going to be quiet here but don’t overlook him. Truex, is winless in 21 career Atlanta starts, but does have five straight top eight finishes and seven in his last eight starts on the Georgia track overall including a runner-up last year.

HAMPTON, GA – FEBRUARY 25: Kevin Harvick drives the #4 Jimmy John’s Ford during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway on February 25, 2018 in Hampton, Georgia. (Photo by Jerry Markland/Getty Images)

Sleepers

Kurt Busch (+1600)

He too is a former winner (2009, 2010) and has had a ton of success lately in Atlanta. Busch, has four straight top eight finishes on the track and eight in his last 10 starts. His worst finish since 2010 in Atlanta is 13th. He was third a year ago. Also, Busch is strong on aged racing surfaces in 2020. He was third in two of the three races run on them this year.

Jimmie Johnson (+1800)

He has five career Atlanta wins, four runner-ups, 14 top five finishes and 16 top 10’s. His average finishing position is second among active drivers. He won back-to-back races in Atlanta in 2015 and 2016. While he had 16 top 10 finishes in his first 28 Atlanta races, he’s only had five in his last eight including three finishes of 19th, 27th and 24th in each of the last three years. He was third last Sunday in Bristol.

Erik Jones (+2500)

This could be Toyota’s lead driver on Sunday. Jones, was 14th in 2017, 11th in 2018 and seventh last year. He’s also been quick in his return to action following the COVID-19 break.

Clint Bowyer (+2500)

He has struggled at Atlanta in the past. But, he has been good though recently there. Bowyer, was third in 2018 and fifth last year as those are his lone top two top 10 finishes in his last nine Atlanta starts. In fact, those are his only top five finishes in 19 Atlanta tries too. He’s also coming off of a runner-up finish last Sunday.

Aric Almirola (+5000)

Almirola, was eighth last year after starting on the pole and leading 36 laps. At Fontana and Darlington, older surfaces, Almirola was in the top 12 in all three starts this year including two of them in the top eight.

Christopher Bell (+15000) 

Why not here? Bell, was third and first respectively on this very race track in his two Xfinity Series starts on it. He won the Truck Series race in 2017 too. Also, hes starting to his his stride now with three top 11 finishes in his last four starts on the season as well.

Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 Race Preview

The first race affected by the COVID-19 pandemic is back up. Sunday’s race in Atlanta will mark a return to the site that first started this whole thing. Atlanta though, is a popular track on the schedule due to the aged surface. See, when the track was reconfigured for 1997 and beyond, they also repaved it then. That’s the last time the asphalt has been replaced. That stat makes this the third oldest surface in NASCAR trailing only Dover (1995) and Fontana (1996).

In turn, it’s created a bumpy and aged track that produces high tire wear and multiple lanes to race in. Because of that, Atlanta has become one of the drivers’ favorite tracks to compete on.

The track was supposed to go through a repave a few years ago, but due to the drivers’ input, they decided to patch some of the cracks and holes instead of fully repave it.

With a new package though, tire wear is still key. Just look to Fontana earlier this season, another aged surface. It saw high tire wear, so much so it cost Ryan Blaney a second place finish that day. How much tire wear will take place on Sunday? Odds are, this will play a pivotal role with higher temperatures and a day race.

Teams will have to be creative with pit stops and pit strategy this year like they have in the past. Most drivers say that Atlanta will run a lot like a combo of Fontana, Darlington and Charlotte.

If that’s the case, don’t look for much out of the Toyota camp. They’ve won just twice in the Peachtree state and have failed to reach victory lane there since 2014. JGR has also struggled to regain their pace for 2019 and it’s showing. They’ve won just twice through the first nine races, which last year, they won a record setting 19 times in 36 tries.

Unfortunately for them, 2020 isn’t going like 2019 and I don’t think that changes on Sunday. Kyle Busch has led just 114 laps since Daytona, 100 of those coming last weekend in Bristol and has only led 11 laps in total in his last five combined Atlanta tries. He does have three top seven finishes in his last four tries though, but neither have seen him be all that competitive, just like this season has gone. Erik Jones has led 27 laps all year and has never earned a top five at Atlanta before in a Cup car. Martin Truex Jr. is winless so far and has never won in 21 career Atlanta starts. That leaves Denny Hamlin who may have won twice in 2020 but he’s just been pedestrian in the other races. Hamlin, hasn’t been at his best in Atlanta either. He has two top 10 finishes since 2012, albeit both being top fives. But, three of his last seven Atlanta finishes have been 38th. He’s finished 17th or worse in two of the last three weeks.

Don’t count out the Ford’s though. The blue ovals have won this race in each of the last three years and have been stout so far this season. If a Chevrolet is going to challenge the Ford’s to the win, look for it to be among the Hendrick Motorsports camp. While Atlanta hasn’t necessarily been a strong track for them lately, they have won three times since 2014 there. But, if you go back to 2011, the only Chevy team to have won in Atlanta has been HMS and if you go back to 2007, Chevy has won six times, five of which being HMS too. The common consenscious in the NASCAR garage is that the race will be Hendrick’s to lose. Luckily for the competition, they’ve done just that lately with giving away multiple wins already this season.

Recently too, HMS has struggled in Atlanta. Jimmie Johnson has 16 top 10 finishes in 28 tries, but his last three finishes are 19th, 27th and 24th respectively. William Byron’s two finishes are 18th and 17th. Alex Bowman’s results with HMS are 20th and 15th. Chase Elliott, the home track hero, was eighth, fifth and 10th in his first three years but 19th in 2019.

Now though, HMS looks like a premiere team again. Bowman, has been at his best on older surfaces as he won in Fontana and was second in Darlington 1. Elliott has the fastest race car and Johnson is starting to look like his oldself again.

Stat To Watch

With this being a 1.5-mile track, we’ve seen nine different winners in the last nine races on intermediates. It all started last June 30 at the Chicagoland Speedway with Alex Bowman. Then, Kentucky Speedway (Kurt Busch), Las Vegas in the Fall (Martin Truex Jr), Kansas (Denny Hamlin), Texas (Kevin Harvick), Homestead (Kyle Busch) and Las Vegas this year (Joey Logano) and Charlotte (Brad Keselowski/Chase Elliott).

Out of the last 68 races on 1.5-mile tracks, 56 of them have been won by a handful of drivers. Martin Truex Jr. (12) leads them but Kevin Harvick (10), Jimmie Johnson (10), Brad Keselowski (10), Kyle Busch (8) and Joey Logano (7) have been at their best on intermediate race tracks.

If this trend is to continue, someone like Byron, Johnson, Jones, Blaney, Bowyer or Almirola are the best options to do so.

They Said It

“Starting to bother me,” said second place finisher last Sunday Clint Bowyer regarding now fans. “Yeah, you’re starting to see racing going on with fans in the stands, social distancing, stuff like that. A place like Bristol, honestly it’s the first time I really felt like, man, it’s empty. Kind of felt that empty feeling where even racing out there, you can feel the vibe. 

“That deal with the 9 and the 22, you get out of the car right there and this place would have been standing on end. It would have erupted. Without that, it’s kind of like, Well, I guess we’ll go home. 

“I’m ready to have fans back is what I’m saying. I think it’s time.”