TRACK: Bristol Motor Speedway (.533-mile Oval) DISTANCE: 500 Laps – STAGE 1 (Lap 125, STAGE 2 (125 Laps), FINAL STAGE 250 LAPS (266.5Miles) WEATHER: RAIN 0%, 70 degrees high

Betting favorites

Kyle Busch (+400)

Hard to pick against him. Busch, has had three Bristol wins in his last five starts there including a win just last spring. While he hasn’t won yet this season, he’s been close with a top five in four of his last six starts.

Joey Logano (+650)

A two-time victor this year, Logano has bee stout at Bristol lately too. He has seven top 10s in his last nine Bristol starts. In this race last year, Logano led 146 laps and finished third.

Chase Elliott (+900)

He won the pole last year. He’s been quicker this year and should have at least three wins so far this season. He’s been in the top 11 in three of his four spring starts be has three straight top 11s there overall. Oh yeah, he finally got over the hump on Thursday night. 

Longer Shots

Denny Hamlin (+800)

Worth the risk. He’s without some key members, but Hamlin does have five top 10s in his last seven Bristol starts including four of which in the top five. He won the night race last August and fifth in this one.

Kevin Harvick (+800)

He scored a top 10 in every race run in 2020. He has seven top 10s in his last nine Bristol starts too.

Kurt Busch (+1400)

This is his chance at another win. Busch, has six Bristol victories including the 2018 night race. He was runner-up to his brother in this race last year and ninth in the fall. With three top five finishes in his last four tries, take Busch to win.

Ryan Blaney (+1600)

Blaney has one top five in he career at Bristol. But, he does have three straight top 10s and four in his last five tries. He’s also led 100 or more laps in three of his last four Bristol starts as well.

Alex Bowman (+1600)

Two top eights in his last four Bristol tries and a lot of speed this season. Need I say more?

Jimmie Johnson (+2000)

The speed is back for Johnson. He also has nine top 11 results in his last 11 Bristol tries. In the spring race, he was second, 23rd, first, third and 10th respectively in his last five tries.

Clint Bowyer (+2200)

This is his chance to end his winless drought. Bowyer, has seven top 10s in his late nine Bristol starts and 10 in the last 13. He was seventh in both races a year ago and eighth and sixth respectively in 2018.

Matt DiBenedetto (+4000)

He should have won the last time out at Bristol. DiBenedetto, led a race-high 93 laps on that August night and would finish runner-up to Denny Hamlin. Now, he’s back with the Wood Borthers, a team that has actually fared well on the concrete oval. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4000)

Fresh off of a top five in Charlotte, Stenhouse heads to honestly one of his better tracks. 

Food City 500 Preview

This will be a different Bristol than what we saw last year. The old rules package similar to 2018 is back. Will that help the racing?

It did in Phoenix. While I say that, I also sense that the same usual drivers will be strong again.

No practice will happen, neither will qualifying. That helps the usual suspects. Plus, qualifying hasn’t helped much lately anyways. Five of the last seven Bristol race winners have come from ninth on back including three from Row 9 or further. That’s not good news for Team Penske who have three of the top four starting positions via a draw. Despite that, it’s been since 2004 since someone has won past Row 12, so really being in the top 20 helps. Since 2015, the only times the winner has started better than ninth was twice from the pole and the other from fifth. That’s it.

Also, some big named drivers have struggled at Bristol lately. Denny Hamlin won last years night race but is without his car chief, crew chief and engineer. Martin Truex Jr has one top 10 in his last 15 Bristol starts. Kevin Harvick has one top five in his last six Bristol tries. Brad Keselowski has one top five in his last eight. Chase Elliott has two top fives in eight tries. That’s why the Busch brothers are so strong because their competition is weaker.

The Toyota’s will all be in the right spots and have even won four of the last five at Bristol, but they’re lacking in speed this season too and really on Busch gives them their best shot at victory. Busch though, had led over 400 laps at this time last year, but heading into this weekend, he’s led just 14. Truex Jr has a top five in the second stage of in seven of the eight races run, but no top fives in the races themselves either. His last Bristol top five was back in 2012. Three of Erik Jones’ last four Bristol finishes are 22nd or worse and Denny Hamlin is without his crew chief, car chief and engineer.

Finally, watch out for the rookies. Christopher Bell has a win and a runner-up finish in four NXS starts at Bristol while Tyler Reddick was second to Bell in the spring race but won the summer night race after in 2019. Reddick, was also seventh and ninth respectively in 2018 too. Cole Custer was third in the spring race too for a 1-2-3 by the “Big 3.”

Stat To Watch

Busch brothers have won four of the last five Bristol races. Can they make it 5-for-6?

They Said It

“I think the first challenge is going to be just completing that first lap,” Tyler Reddick said of Bristol . “That’s one of the toughest race tracks to go around when it doesn’t have rubber and heat on it. I’ve run Truck races there through my career and when we’re one of the first ones on the race track, that first hour of practice you can’t really learn much. The traction compound is slick – you go down in there to try to use it and you almost spin out. You run the middle and that’s about it. Man, the first hour or so of practice you can’t get up in that either because it’s slick and you almost wreck.

“I remember the first time they put traction compound down at Bristol. I went out for practice and I was in the middle, we were OK. But I wanted to try the bottom, so I went down there, got loose and couldn’t go anywhere. So, I was like ‘that’s not going to work’. I went up to try to use the top and I drove it straight into the fence. 

“I’m worried that the start of the race is going to be very chaotic. I don’t know how that’s going to go. There’s only one groove and we’re going to be starting double-file, so that’s going to be very interesting.”