By time we leave Charlotte next Wednesday, we will have a good idea on just how  well Toyota and Ford will run for the rest of the season. While it’s hard to predict how anything will go in 2020, let alone next week, these four combined races will have told a lot about their prospects.

You may be asking, how?

Well, Darlington and Charlotte are two tracks that Toyota has been dominating on and Ford hasn’t. Heading into the resumption of the season following a 70 day COVID-19 break, Toyota looked like a shell of themselves last year.

In 2019, three of the four drivers in the Championship 4 were from the Toyota camp. They won a NASCAR record 19 of the 36 points paying races including all the big ones — the Daytona 500, Southern 500, Bristol Night Race as well as the Coca-Cola 600.

Heading into Darlington on Wednesday night, they were just 1-for-5 with their lone victory on a superspeedway in the season opener at Daytona. Heading into this year, Toyota had won four of the last five at Darlington and leaving last week, they were shutout of victory lane in both races.

Then, they found speed. JGR went 1-2 with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch finishing first or second respectively. Throw in Erik Jones and you get three of their four drivers coming home in the top five and all four in the top 10. Combined, they led 55 laps overall. Prior to Wednesday, they led just 108 laps all year. 93 of those 108 laps were led in the season opening Daytona 500. The only laps that they’ve led since then was all by Martin Truex Jr. who led one lap in Las Vegas, three in Fontana and 11 in Phoenix. On Wednesday, three of their four drivers led at least one lap.

Hamlin though, warns that maybe the speed showed on Wednesday was a mirage. Wednesday’s race was under the lights. The end of the Daytona 500, the other race that they’ve won? Under the lights. The other four races, the ones that they’ve looked pedestrian? Day races.

“(That) was by far the best race that we had as far as being competitive on speed,” said Hamlin after his win. “So, I don’t know what that says because it was a night race. There was more on-throttle time. I think we’re still behind; I don’t think we can sugarcoat it in any kind of way and say we’re in good shape now.”

His teammate Martin Truex Jr agrees.

“I think we’re right there,” said Truex of speed. “We’re probably not the strongest team right now. I don’t think our cars are the fastest cars out there. I think if you look at the stats, we’ve had some really good race cars with the 19 (team).

Now, it’s to Charlotte where they have won two in-a-row in the Coca-Cola 600 and four of the last five. All of those wins were dominating performances. Luckily, the next two races will run under the lights too.

If they don’t win in either of the two races over the next few days and fall 2-for-8 to start the season, it would prove to have a big drop off from last year’s pace.

Kyle Busch may have three top two finishes in his last four starts on the season, but he’s failed to lead a lap since Feb. in Daytona. His car hasn’t had the pace that its had in the past as they’ve had to work on it a lot throughout the races to get into the top five.

On the flip side, coming into the ending of the break last weekend, Ford had one Darlington win since 2007. They dominated Sunday’s race in a Kevin Harvick win. They’ve now won half of the first six races run in 2020. At Charlotte, they’ve not won the Coke 600 since 2002 and have only won three times at Charlotte overall since 2003 — all being in the Fall oval race.

“Just want to (win the Coke 600) so bad, but that race track with this 550 rules package is pretty intense on these restarts,” Logano said. “As a Coca-Cola driver, I know how big of a deal it is to win that thing and feel the pressure to do it. I want to get it done.  I’ve been, like I said, close.  There are different things every time and it takes the whole package to make it happen.  The driver has got to be on his game.  The pit crew’s got to be on it.  The car’s got to be good and things gotta fall your way, so I guess in recent years it hasn’t for the Ford guys, but I wouldn’t bet money against us this week.”

If Ford trumps Toyota again over the next two races at Charlotte, that will further prove that Ford is legit and Toyota some how has to find more speed in a day and age where social distancing is king.