If we base the favorites this Sunday off past Darlington Raceway history, then a no-brainer at the top of the list would be the Joe Gibbs Racing camp. Toyota, has won three of the last four Southern 500’s with three different drivers (Truex Jr., Hamlin, Jones). The only one missing from that is Kyle Busch.

Busch though, has two top three finishes in his last three Darlington starts including a top seven finish in seven of his last eight starts at the Lady In Black. Furthermore, he’s had two straight top three finishes on the season. But, Busch would note that the top three’s have been a bit of good luck on his side too. The speed hasn’t been there in his No. 18 Toyota so far this season. The same can be said for his teammates too.

More: Darlington full race preview

More: Darlington betting preview

While Denny Hamlin won the season opening Daytona 500 and has a top 10 finish in eight of his last 10 Darlington starts, including five top four finishes in his last eight starts on the South Carolina oval, he’s only been 17th, sixth and 20th since his dramatic win in the season opener.

Martin Truex Jr’s best finish is 14th this season. He was 32nd in the first race (Daytona) and last race (Phoenix) of the year. He was 11th and 15th respectively in the last two Southern 500’s and has a new crew chief this year. His win in 2016 is his only top five on the 1.3 mile race track over his last seven starts there.

Then there’s Erik Jones. He’s in a contract year again and that scenario produced a win the last time out in Darlington. In fact, Jones has finished fifth (2017), eighth (2018) and first (2019) in three tries there. This season though, Jones sits 21st in the points with finishes of 18th, 23rd, 10th and 28th respectively.

So, while JGR won 19 of the 36 races a year ago, a Cup Series record, and went 1-2 in the Southern 500, I don’t necessarily expect they will dominate on Sunday afternoon