INDIANAPOLIS — We’re a little over one week until a major live sport returns to our airwaves. NASCAR, will be the first ones out of the gates next Sunday when they return for the first time since March 8 in Darlington.

Last Thursday, NASCAR unveiled their immediate plans on being able to resume for the first time since March 8. We knew then that they would race seven times in an 11 day span with four of those seven being for NASCAR’s premiere division, the Cup Series.

But, what was tricky was, three of those four races that would run this month, were newly added. That starts next Sunday (May 17) at the Darlington Raceway. Then, we’ll return to the same 1.3-mile South Carolina race track a few days later (May 20) for a second event in four days. The Coca-Cola 600 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway will still contest on May 24, like initially planned, while a third race run this year on the 1.5-mile North Carolina race track will then run on May 27.

As you can see, that’s three new races added to the schedule. NASCAR also said that the Southern 500 nor will the trip to the Charlotte ROVAL this fall, will be affected. Their plan is to still run all 36 races and those two events will be part of that. So, with three new races added and none being taken away from those tracks later, something had to give.

On Friday, that something was announced. Sonoma, Chicagoland and Richmond will lose races for 2020, as all three are canceled and won’t be made up at a later date. For Sonoma and Chicago, their June dates were the only stops for NASCAR this season. In terms of Richmond, they will still hold onto their playoff race and mix that with NASCAR wanting to leave the 10 race playoff venues in tact and not to run any doubleheaders in the postseason either, Richmond’s spring race fate came down to a new time during the regular season which wasn’t going to be met with Virginia’s current social distancing protocols.

With California and Illinois having strong orders to avoid public gatherings, there wasn’t much of a chance of rescheduling those races for later this summer either. Plus, NASCAR is wanting to remain close to the teams shops in North Carolina and didn’t know when they can go outside of that radius yet.

For Richmond, Virginia issued new phasing plans of reopening on Monday and part of that would make it difficult to race in the Commonwealth prior to July 13. If they can do so after, Richmond may be a tad far for a weeknight race where Martinsville (VA) Speedway is just a couple of hours away from Charlotte and can fill in later this year.

So now knowing that, what’s next?

NASCAR hasn’t revealed their plans for past the May 27 race at Charlotte, but if you’re paying attention, their final version is coming together. Yes, the situation remains fluid and things can will likely will change again. There’s over 60 different versions of this schedule that NASCAR has worked through. So, to say as a definite that we know what post Charlotte will look like, that would be false. What we do know is that NASCAR still wants to stay close to home to start June off with. That means there’s no way Kansas (May 31 and Michigan (June 7) will happen. We also know the two weeks after (June 14) and (June 21) have been canceled with those being the Sonoma and Chicagoland dates.

Basically, the current schedule with Kansas-Michigan-Sonoma-Chicagoland-Pocono for June will change. What it changes too, well I can pinpoint what likely would be on the docket next. Here’s how.

If all goes the way that they envision, they will still get all 36 Cup Series races in this season. So far, we’re four races in with 32 more to go. With four races in May, that means we’d get 28 more races left.

NASCAR executive vice president and chief racing development officer Steve O’Donnell said last week that the plan they have in place now is for the season to not get extended past Nov. 8. That’s the final scheduled race at the Phoenix Raceway which will award a season champion that day. He also said that the plan is to keep the 10 race playoffs intact and to still have the regular season cutoff race at the Daytona International Speedway.

“You will see Daytona in that same slot is our hope, as the last race before the Playoffs,” O’Donnell said. “I would say on versions probably 40 through 55 we extended through December.  Then things have changed.  It’s backed up.  As of today we expect the Playoff calendar to stay intact on the Cup side where we had it ending at the beginning of the year.

“Again, that could change if some things happen, but that is our intent right now.”

He went on to say, “The schedule we feel like we have a schedule mapped out for all three series that gets us through Phoenix.  We feel like it’s pretty well baked.  We feel like we’ve had the right cadence with where states are, where health officials may be.  Certainly we have backups to backups to backups.

“I would say we started about seven pencils and a lot of erasers and have moved to pen now in terms of saying to our broadcast partners and tracks that this is what we believe we can collectively do.  The industry is there, as well.

“But until we are racing and until we see how things take place, until we see how this virus affects things down the road, we can’t say for sure.

“I do feel confident as an industry we have a schedule that we feel like we can pull off and we can pull off in a good way for the fans.”

So, if this remains true to plan, then we know the schedule from Aug. 29 through Nov. 8 will consist of Daytona, Darlington, Richmond, Bristol, Las Vegas, Talladega, Charlotte (ROVAL), Kansas, Texas, Martinsville and Phoenix. Vegas could swap because of a big concert for the area on their playoff weekend, but those 11 tracks are set in stone. No one else is moving into that area of the schedule.

That then leaves between June and Mid August to fill gaps. We know that NASCAR has four races run, four scheduled for May and 11 at the end of the year. If the plan is to still run all 36 races, that leaves 17 races left to race over a span of three months. There’s 12 weekends available to get those 17 races in, so that means some doubleheaders and more weeknight races, right?

“I would say at this point our intent is to keep Pocono as a doubleheader, and for that to be the first scheduled kind of Saturday, Sunday doubleheader,” O’Donnell said. “I think it is fair to assume as you get deeper into the schedule you may see one if not two more additional doubleheaders in the schedule, especially on the Cup side.”

So, that’s two races, which brings us to 15 more to figure out. We know we’ve lost eight races this spring due to COVID-19 (Atlanta, Homestead, Texas, Bristol, Richmond, Talladega, Dover and Martinsville) with Richmond being canceled all together. Throw in Sonoma and Chicagoland not being a factor now for 2020 and you get a clearer picture on where we’ll race.

O’Donnell said last Thursday too that NASCAR isn’t going to add any new tracks to this schedule. They’ll work with their current relationships with the current tracks, so if another track has to fall off the schedule, a new date for an existing track will pop up.

So, no doubleheaders in the playoffs and Pocono being the first weekend doubleheader. Those are crucial because out of the tracks that missed a spring race, Texas, Bristol, Richmond, Talladega and Martinsville are all in the playoffs too. They won’t be able to make any of those dates up in the Fall — hence Richmond 1 being gone.

So, how many of them get made up? Well, lets look at the clues given to us so far. NASCAR isn’t willing to do any fly away races until the first seven are in. They’d prefer to stay close to the Charlotte area, the place where most of these teams are based.

Darlington, is 91 miles away from Charlotte. That’s why they are race No. 1 and No. 2 in the resumption part of the schedule.

Martinsville (VA) Speedway is the second closest track in proximity to Charlotte at 128 miles away. They missed their May 8 race. Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway is third at 156 miles away. They missed their April date. Atlanta Motor Speedway is next at 274 miles away.

Virginia has a stay at home order through June 10 and has now extended their phases. The soonest they could host a sporting event is July 13, so that basically eliminates Martinsville before then and has already eliminated Richmond. Tennessee and Georgia though, have already lifted stay-at-home orders and are phasing their states back open. Then, read what O’Donnell said about racing soon at Atlanta.

When asked this question, “You mentioned tracks.  Georgia has been opening up.  Atlanta drivable from Charlotte.  Is it fair to say that’s part of the mix soon?

“That would be fair,” he said. 

It would make sense to race Bristol, which is only three hours away from Charlotte, during a weeknight, then go to Atlanta that weekend. I would be shocked if these aren’t the first two tracks up after Charlotte.

That makes up two of the eight missed. I’d also not be too surprised to see a race at Talladega in June too since they’re the next closest at 347 miles, or roughly five hours away from Charlotte. All three of those races are driveable and can be done in a one-day span. Bristol and Atlanta have lights if needed too.

That would be three of the eight races made up by the end of June with a loss of the other giving us four left to pursue a new date for. Plus, you could make up Dover later on in the year, as they can run a doubleheader weekend. They’re close enough to Charlotte (497 miles) or around eight hours, to run two races in a weekend and get back rather easily. Remember, O’Donnell said 1-2 more doubleheader weekends past Pocono, so Dover would qualify. That would give us five of the eight postponed races made up or even eliminated. 

The only other tracks to qualify for a doubleheader weekend without “adding a race” would just be Michigan which they likely are to lose their June date, so a make up race with the second race at the Irish Hills scheduled would be realistic.

So, with these possible scenarios now made, where do we stand?

Four races already run (Daytona, Vegas, Fontana, Phoenix), four more races set to run in May (Darlington x2, Charlotte x2), a June of likely Atlanta, Bristol and Talladega, a Pocono, Dover and Michigan doubleheader, Richmond 1, Chicagoland and Sonoma canceled and the final 11 races remaining in tact.

That’s 28 of 36 races known with three tracks eliminated. That leaves eight more rounds open for July-August. The tracks left to make up a race are Martinsville, Homestead and Texas. We know Texas and Martinsville can’t host doubleheader weekends later on in the year.

I do think Homestead can be made up in June too as they’re 11 hours away and if the closer races pan out, they’re close enough for an overnight visit and get back. Florida is a willing state to host races without fans, so I think we get a visit to South Florida some time in June too giving us one race to make up from the already postponed list. Plus, the cars are already setup for Homestead since they were the second race affected by COVID-19.

With June seeing Sonoma leaving and Michigan likely being rescheduled for later this season with their second date, Kansas’ fate looks bleak. They will have to move as well, but remember, they host a playoff race. We have seven races left to schedule in a seven week span. Hmm, how ironic to see how that works out.

You can fit these in with Indianapolis (July 5), Kentucky (July 8 *weeknight), maybe move Michigan’s doubleheader weekend up to July 11-12. It would be a midwest extravaganza where the haulers may not need to come back to Charlotte. That fills in three more races not already scheduled and leaves us with five races left to fill.

Here’s the tracks left to fill those five — Martinsville (1), Watkins Glen, New Hampshire, Kansas and Texas (1). See how this worked out?

Here’s what I would guess a tentative schedule looks like and again, this is only speculation and taking what they’re giving us. This gives a few breaks actually in order to potentially move the schedule up or back as well.

May 17 – Darlington

May 20 – Darlington

May 24 – Charlotte

May 27 – Charlotte

May 31 – Atlanta (make up spring race)

June 3 – Bristol (make up spring race)

June 7 – Talladega (make up spring race)

June 14 – Homestead (make up for spring race)

June 27 – Pocono

June 28 – Pocono

July 5 – Indianapolis

July 8 – Kentucky

July 11 – Michigan (move from June race)

July 12 – Michigan

July 19 – Kansas (move from June race)

July 26 – Texas (Make up from spring race)

Aug. 2 – New Hampshire

Aug. 9 – Watkins Glen

Aug. 15 – Dover (move from spring race)

Aug. 16 – Dover

Aug. 22 – Martinsville

Aug. 29 – Daytona

Playoffs

Sept. 6 – Darlington

Sept. 12 – Richmond

Sept. 19 – Bristol

Sept. 27 – Las Vegas

Oct. 4 – Talladega

Oct. 11 – Charlotte (ROVAL)

Oct. 18 – Kansas

Oct. 25 – Texas

Nov 1 – Martinsville

Nov. 8 – Phoenix

Now, when can fans return. The short term answer is not any time soon. The long term answer is no one knows. What we do know is the novel virus isn’t going anywhere any time soon. Yes, cases have dropped across the country but they’re still high. There’s not going to be an effective vaccine at any point of 2020. That’s a fact. So, how can you race in front of fans when the spread could still occur. 

The reason the spread is lower than the initial models showed is due to social distancing mitigation that was put in place. It’s worked. How can we come out of that any time soon? I don’t see large crowds being allowed for the foreseeable future, so with NASCAR looking to host races close to base in states that are willing to host events without fans, the easiest answer to this is, I don’t see any time before July we can witness races in person and even that date is in question.

There’s a chance experts are saying of a fall resurgence again, so even as we lax some restrictions, I don’t know how we can have fans in the stands at all in 2020. Again, that can change, but right now, NASCAR can’t plan for fans in the seats in their decision making.