NASCAR, start your engines. The stage is all yours. Without any live sports being played over the last 10 weeks, NASCAR is the first major sporting league back. With the sports world being greatly affected by the coronavirus, when Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19 on March 11, the NBA and all the other sporting leagues around the world suspended their seasons in the days following. No one has returned.

Until now.

NASCAR’s race on Sunday will be their first in 70 days. While this race will look nothing like what we saw on March 8, at least we’re still racing.

MORE: Darlington Betting Preview

First up is Darlington — a track that lives by many nicknames but the most prominent one “Too Tough To Tame.” It didn’t get that nickname for no reason. The South Carolina race track is one of the toughest to race on all year.

It’s fast. It’s physical. The racing surface is aged and degrades tires like sandpaper. Oh yeah, the quick way around the “Lady In Black” is to race at speeds over 170 mph just inches from the wall.

If that’s not tough enough, try showing up this weekend with no laps behind the wheel in over two months and the first laps you take around this daunting track are in race conditions. That’s right, there’s no testing, no practice and no qualifying between now and race day. You just show up, unload the cars and race.

“We’ve been sitting outside of a race car for over two months and then we’re gonna barrel it down into Turn 1 at 200 mph with no practice,” Joey Logano said to ESPN on Monday. “That’s going to be a puckered up moment.”

Last year’s Southern 500 pole sitter William Byron agrees.

“It’s going to be difficult,” Byron said of the situation. “I think the biggest thing is just trying to prepare yourself well physically. Obviously you’re not going to get that chance to really go through practice and kind of warm up your muscles, I guess you could say, to get ready in the car.”

Byron, also notes that the trip to Darlington normally is a night race. This one, will be in different conditions.

“With it being a daytime race, it’s going to be different as well,” the Hendrick Motorsports driver continued. “A lot of different variables there. The biggest thing is just being prepared.”

It’s going to test the drivers’ stamina and focus as well as the teams’ attention to detail. There’s no way to simulate these races because we haven’t race at Darlington in May in  years. The notes from Labor Day weekend won’t translate well over to this month and without any practice before, you’re going to have to work on your race car all race.

So, how do you handicap a race without any data? The only thing we can go off of is past stats on the 1.33-mile egg shaped South Carolina oval, but even that doesn’t paint the whole picture. You have to factor in the first four races of the season too. Even that doesn’t tell the whole story either. Here’s why.

Past speed at Darlington may not mean great speed this season. Great speed this season may not translate well over to great speed at Darlington this Sunday because there’s no practice or preparation. This race is going to come down to speed in the past there, speed this season and how well the driver and crew chief can communicate to get the cars dialed in for race winning speed.

“A lot of it’s going to fall on the teams and the cars who hits the setup right,” Byron said of racing without practice and qualifying and how hard it’s going to be for he and his team. “It’s going to be big because there’s a lot of variables there. You’re not going to have a chance to set the height of the car, predict where the splitter is going to end up, where the back is going to travel to. As a driver all you can do is put consistent laps together. You have to be efficient in traffic at the start of the race. I do feel like there’s going to be some mistakes made, some bounces off the wall things like that. You have to avoid that in the first run or so. Then you’ll start to see who really has the car after that.”

Despite this, lets take a crack at who should be good.

Top Speed Cars So Far In 2020 

1. Ryan Blaney

He should have three top two finishes right now. A costly caution in the end of the Vegas race while leading and a tire in the end at Fontana kept top two finishes from the Team Penske driver. The finishes right now say – 2nd, 11th, 19th and 37th but the ability and race car says a top two contender.

2. Alex Bowman

This is likely the second best race car before the COVID-19 hiatus. Bowman, like Blaney, was hurt by that late race caution in Vegas. He then turned around and led 110 of 200 laps in Fontana en route to a victory. He has finishes of 24th, 13th, first and 11th through four races.

3. Joey Logano

The Team Penske driver looks good so far. He was among the best cars at Daytona but just got caught up in a crash. He won in Vegas as well as Phoenix but was ho-hum in Fontana.

4. Martin Truex Jr. 

The finishes here say 32nd, 20th, 14th and 32nd. But, Truex’s race car has been far faster than those results show. He was caught up in a crash at Daytona. He had pit road problems in Vegas and Fontana. He was punted in Phoenix. The speed is a top five car.

5. Chase Elliott

The finishes like Truex, aren’t indicative on how much speed he has. Elliott, won three of the first four stages in 2020 including having five top two finishes over the last six of them. He’s also led the most laps in two of the last three races. But, Elliott was involved in a crash at Daytona and had an issue during the end of the race in Vegas to go along with a loose wheel Sunday in Phoenix. The finishes were 17th, 26th and seventh respectively.

6. Kevin Harvick

The only guy with a top 10 finish in all four races so far but I have him sixth on my list. The reason? He hasn’t shown as much speed as the rest in front. Harvick, was sixth in Daytona but hung out in the back all race. He was eighth in Vegas but his car faded off as a run would go on. He was ninth in Fontana as a non factor. He did finish runner-up in Phoenix but this is a different racing package.

He’s close but not quite there yet. At this point last year, he was 26th (Daytona), fourth (Vegas), fourth (Fontana) and ninth (Phoenix).

7. Brad Keselowski

He’s there with Harvick. Good car, a solid one, but not great. Keselowski, crashed in Daytona (36th) and was seventh in Vegas, fifth in Fontana and 11th in Phoenix. He’s a top 10 car right now but not a big top five threat. This is a bit off as last year as he was 12th (Daytona), second (Vegas), third (Fontana) and 19th (Phoenix).

8. Kyle Larson (Now Matt Kenseth)

Larson is no longer in this ride but his car was a quiet 10th in Daytona and ninth in Vegas but had troubles early on in Fontana (21st) and fourth was in Phoenix. It may take Kenseth some time to get going though.

9. Kyle Busch

He may have two top three finishes in the last two races, but even Busch admitted that the speed isn’t in his car for top five’s yet.

Busch, crashed in Daytona and finished 34th. He only a non factor and only 15th in Vegas. The runner-up at the Auto Club Speedway was a big of smoke and mirrors.

Last year, Busch had a third and two victories in his three west coast starts. He was runner-up in Daytona too. That’s four top three finishes in these races a year ago. This year, he’s 34th, 15th, 2nd and.

10. Jimmie Johnson

What a much better start to a season for the seven-time champion. He looked stout in Daytona, was fifth in Vegas, seventh in Fontana and 12th in Phoenix. He looks like his 98 race winless drought is coming to an end soon as he has a ton of speed.

Top Darlington Drivers

1. Kevin Harvick — He’s won just once there, but he does have six straight top 10 finishes including five of which inside of the top five. He led 63 total laps led with RCR but 518 in just six tries with SHR.
2. Denny Hamlin – He won the Southern 500 in 2017. Hamlin, also has four top 10 finishes in his last five Darlington tries including seven top six finishes in his last 10 overall starts there.
3. Brad Keselowski – The Penske driver won the prestigious Labor Day weekend race in 2018. He was fifth last year, ninth in 2017 and runner-up in 2016.
4. Kyle Busch – The JGR driver hasn’t finished worse than 11th since 2011. He was third a year ago in the Southern 500. He has two top three finishes in his last three Darlington starts overall. Also, Busch has seven top seven finishes in his last eight tries there.
5. Erik Jones – Oddly, he comes in high on this list. Jones, won the last time out in Darlington (last Sept) to go along with being eighth (2018) and fifth (2017) in his only three other Cup tries.
6. Martin Truex Jr. – He won the 2016 Southern 500. Truex, also has four top 11 finishes in his last five Darlington tries.
7. Kurt Busch – While he’s never won in Darlington, he’s been close. Plus, Busch has three straight top seven finishes on the Lady in black including four in the last five years.
8. Joey Logano – Another solid Darlington driver but not one who’s reached victory lane there. Logano, has five top 10 finishes in 11 tries including three of those in the last five years. The Penske driver was runner-up to Keselowski in 2018.
9. Chase Elliott – The Georgia native is a former Darlington winner in Xfinity Series competition. In five Cup tries, he has three top 11 finishes, all coming in the last four years. He was fifth in the 2018 Southern 500.
10. Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time Cup champion used to be really good at Darlington. He’s a three-time winner there. But, over the last five years, he’s finished 19th, 33rd, 12th, 39th and 16th respectively. That’s why I have him on the bottom of this list. His past history is why he’s even on it.

Who To Stay Away From

1. Rookies – None of the rookies are really thriving right now. The “Big 3” were supposed to be playoff threats but they look pedestrian at the moment. Christopher Bell has finishes of 21st, 33rd, 38th and 24th. Cole Custer has been 37th, 19th, 18th and ninth. Tyler Reddick has finished 28th, 18th, 11th and 33rd. Just one top 10 between them. John Hunter Nemechek started out great with an 11th place finish in Daytona, but he was only 24th, 25th and 25th after the following three weeks. Without any practice and a new package that they’ve never raced at Darlington before with, I don’t think this is a race winning group.
2. Clint Bowyer – He hasn’t had a solid start to the season. Bowyer, grabbed a sixth place finish in Daytona but had a bad car the last three weeks. He was just 12th (Vegas), 23rd (Fontana) and fifth (Phoenix) respectively. His top five in Phoenix was encouraging but he says that they need to fix the turning on the front end of his race car as they head back east. Unfortunately, they couldn’t work on that car and is heading to a track with just one top 10 finish in his last 12 starts on. In fact, four of his last five Darlington finishes have been 17th or worse with two of them being 36th or worse. 
3. William Byron – What an underwhelming start for the third year driver. He was crashed by Ricky Stenhouse Jr. early in the Daytona 500 (40th). He was second on the final restart in Vegas but suffered a cut tire from contact with Matt DiBenedetto and finished 22nd. In Fontana, he was only 15th. He did finish 10th in Phoenix to maybe get some momentum back but at Darlington, he’s finished 35th and 21st respectively. 
4. Matt Kenseth – It’s nice that he’s back again. But, he hasn’t raced a Cup race since Nov. 2018. He’s never raced this race car before with this racing package. He’s never raced a Chevrolet in his Cup career either. He’s never worked with Chad Johnston as his crew chief and will have to do all of this with no practice time behind the wheel. While Kyle Larson had brought this car to a top three in three of the last four Southern 500’s and laps led of 45, 124, 284 and 44 in the last four years at Darlington, don’t expect Kenseth to shine though. It will take some time.
5. Ryan Blaney – It’s weird to say this when I have him No. 1 on my list for 2020, but at Darlington, he’s only finished 30th, 13th, 31st, 15th and 13th respectively in five tries. He has a new crew chief on his pit box for 2020 too, so it will be difficult to get the adjustments that he needs all race.

So, Who To Bet On?

This is tricky, the Toyota group should be the favorites in landing all four drivers in the top six of the top performers at Darlington. They even had two of the top three finishers in last year’s Southern 500. But, as we’ve seen through the first four races run in 2020, that speed from 2019 hasn’t exactly translated over well. It’s baffling. Without much time to work on their cars over the last 10 weeks, why would we assume that they just magically got better?

Then you have the Team Penske camp who finished 1-2 in the 2018 Southern 500 and have been quick so far in 2020 but all three also have new crew chiefs. Is four weeks of races enough data for the new driver-crew chief tandems to know what each other needs? I mean, we have no practice right. Can these cars be up to par early and if not, do they have enough experience yet to get these rides where they need to be?

Same can be said for Martin Truex Jr. He’s been solid, but has a new crew chief for 2020. They’ve had some mistakes already this year and I don’t know if I trust them yet.

So, who do I trust?

The safe picks are –

1. Harvick
2. Logano
3. KyBusch
4. KuBusch
5. Jones

Sleepers –

1. Elliott
2. Bowman
3. Johnson