This weekend’s Grand Prix of Portland (3 p.m. ET/NBC/INDYCAR Radio Network) marks the penultimate race of the 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season. That means the talk shifts to the championship as we now head towards the final stretch of the year.

Currently, Josef Newgarden leads the standings over his Team Penske teammate of Simon Pagenaud by 38 points. Alexander Rossi is third, 46 points out himself. Scott Dixon is really the only other driver with a chance to win the Astor Cup in Laguna Seca as he’s 70 points out in fourth. Fifth place driver Will Power crashed out early on in last Saturday’s race in Gateway as he went from first the week prior in Pocono to last in a span of six days. He’s 146 points behind.

So, whom among the top four will get the title? Right now, Newgarden is playing great defense but he hasn’t shown a lot of offense lately. He hasn’t scored a podium since his dominating late night in Iowa last month. His last three finishes on the season are 14th, fifth and seventh respectively.

“We were able to maintain the points lead in Gateway, and that was a huge deal for us,” Newgarden said ahead of this weekend’s return trip to the Pacific Northwest. “Now that Simon (Pagenaud) has moved into the second spot in championship points, we’re going to work hard as a team to really continue to battle for the championship. That’s great for Team Penske to have two drivers battling it out for the title. Now we focus on Portland. It’s a technical road course, so we’re really going to have to make sure we hit all of our marks to make sure we don’t lose any ground. It’s going to be a tough race for the whole field, especially for the championship contenders. I’m excited for the challenge along with the rest of my team, and we can’t wait to get on track there with the Hitachi Chevy.”

That has opened the door for Rossi but the Andretti Autosport driver hasn’t capitalized on the opportunity either though.

When Rossi led 54 of 55 laps in the June 23 race at Road America, we thought then that the battle was on between he and Josef Newgarden for this year’s championship. At that time, Rossi had four top two finishes in his last five starts on the season and trailed Newgarden by just seven points. The next best was Pagenaud who was 54 points out.

It was shaping up to be a battle between Newgarden vs. Rossi. American vs. American. Penske vs. Andretti.

A race later in Toronto, Pagenaud made it a three man battle as he led all but five laps himself on the street course to pull within 39 points of Newgarden. Rossi, finished third while Newgarden was fourth that day as the lead for Newgarden shrunk to just four.

That’s where this whole thing really started to change.

Newgarden, won the next week in Iowa and has since pulled his gap on second from four to 38. But, second isn’t Rossi anymore – it’s Pagenaud.

Rossi, hasn’t led a single lap since June 23 as he has just one podium in his last five starts. His last two results are now 18th and 13th respectively. He’s been outscored by Pagenaud by 62 points and Newgarden by 39 points since Toronto (5 races).

For a driver who’s been second in the standings every race since Belle Isle, he’s now fading. He knows it’s time to win.

“This three-week stretch hasn’t started how we would have hoped, but we now have nothing holding us back to collect all the points we can,” said Rossi. “Our mindset has changed a bit from being conservative on our strategy to putting it all out there.

“We have to get another win in order to head into the season finale with a fighting chance for the Astor Cup. We were very strong last year at Portland and could have potentially won, but an untimely yellow caught us out. We tested the track earlier this month and were fast and able to get some good data under us, so we’re staying optimistic and hoping to come out of Portland with a tighter battle for the NAPA team.”

Meanwhile, Pagenaud is coming. No one with the exception of Dixon has scored more points since Toronto than Pagenaud. He’s outpaced Newgarden and Rossi in four of the last five races on the season. Since his win in Toronto, Pagenaud has outscored Newgarden 184-161 and Rossi 184-122.

That’s note worthy, but so is this –  only two times in the series’ history has a driver with a 30+ lead in the championship standings with only two races remaining in the season failed to win the title. Ryan Hunter-Reay, who trailed Will Power by 36 points with two races remaining in 2012 won that year, and Scott Dixon, who was 34 points behind Juan Pablo Montoya in 2015 also was crowned a champion. Dario Franchitti overcame a 25-point deficit to Ryan Briscoe in 2009.

No one is within 38 points of Newgarden right now, so if either Pagenaud, Rossi or Dixon does catch him and win the title, it would make history.

Last year in Portland, Pagenaud finished sixth in this race while Newgarden came home 10th. He’s also finished ahead of Newgarden in four of the five races on natural road courses this season too.

“Portland is shaping up to be a super-exciting weekend,” Pagenaud said this week. “(World Wide Technology Raceway) was a very important night in our championship quest. Moving up to second and winning the oval championship got us closer to the lead. This is the part of the season that I love the most. It is down to the wire exciting racing and competing at our highest level. It’s time to shine.”

Last year, Rossi finished eighth in Portland himself. He has just one podium in five starts on natural road courses this year.

Where Rossi and Dixon have an advantage is, Honda is at their best on natural road courses. Honda has won four of the five races on natural road courses in 2019 including two straight. They in fact have won seven of the last eight on these types of tracks overall, if you go back to last season. In the last race on one at Mid-Ohio, they went 1-2-3. Last year in Portland, they went 1-2-3 as well including putting four cars in the top five and six in the top nine.

Dixon, has scored more points than anyone on natural road courses in this season too. He’s 40 points clear of second best in Rossi. He’s 44 points clear of Newgarden. Throw in the final race being double points and you get him potentially being a threat to close the gap. Plus, he’s scored 185 points since Toronto. That’s best in the series. That’s 24 more than Newgarden too.

So, while past stats show Newgarden should hold onto the title, season stats show that Pagenaud and Dixon can make a run.