MADISON, Ill – The NTT IndyCar Series is back in action this weekend for the third straight year at the Gateway Motorsports Park. Saturday’s Bommarito Automotive Group 500 (8 p.m. ET/NBCSN/INDYCAR Radio Network) has become one of the best races on the schedule.

Saturday’s race shouldn’t be any different.

How To Watch

Coverage – 8 p.m. ET

Green Flag – 8:45 p.m. ET

TV- NBCSN

Radio – INDYCAR Radio Network

Distance – 248 Laps/310 Miles

Defending Race Winner – Will Power

1st Lap Crash?

We saw how last week went at Pocono. The opening lap crash that sparked between contact from Takuma Sato and Alexander Rossi has been talked about more this past week than the other 127 laps run in the rain shortened ABC Supply 500. With another race that has the potential to produce an opening lap crash, how will the drivers race each other on Saturday night?

Last year, we saw a first lap crash with Sébastien Bourdais in Turn 2. We’d have one caution the rest of the weay for Ryan Hunter-Reay stalling on the backstretch on Lap 173.

In 2017, we saw a first lap crash for Tony Kanaan in Turn 2. Then, on the ensuing restart, we’d see another crash in the second corner – this time between Will Power, Ed Carpenter and Takuma Sato.

Two years, two first lap crash, both in Turn 2. Last weekend’s crash was in Turn 2.

Do we see another Turn 2 crash for Saturday’s race?

Drivers need to take care of one another but with this new car being so hard to drive, it’s hard to pass too. Track position is key and on starts/restarts, those are prime opportunities to make your move. It’s a spot where all the cars are bunched up and if you can come out of that lap with the right amount of aggression and not get involved in a crash, you can surely make up several spots.

On the flipside, if you lag back too much and let cars by, you could very well lose spots just as easily.

In a series where your livelihood is based on tenths of a second, you can’t afford to give too much more than you can take.

Penske/Ganassi/Andretti Should Once Again Be Strong 

It should come as no surprise but look for Penske, Ganassi and Andretti to be the front runners for Saturday night’s race. Combined, Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport have won the last 11 Indy Car races on the season and 26 of the 31 races run with this new car.

In Gateway, the site of this weekend’s race, Penske has won both events since the series came back to Gateway including the final two before the long break too. Penske in general has won five straight races on ovals including being 4-for-4 this season alone. Plus, the top four in the oval standings so far? Penske-Penske-Andretti-Penske.

Furthermore, since the start of the 2015 season, this trio of teams have won 61 of the last 79 races run. That’s 78-percent.

With how this season has gone, expect a Penske, Andretti or Ganassi car to pull into victory lane on Saturday night.

Top 5 In The Standings Still Shining

Want to win in the NTT IndyCar Series, you need to be on top of your game. There are no fluke winners here. Just look at the last 11 races on the season – all 11 of them contested saw the race winner be in the top five of the current points standings.

Yes, Josef Newgarden, Alexander Rossi, Simon Pagenaud, Scott Dixon and now Will Power have combined to win every Indy Car race since Long Beach.

All five are on top of their games right now and in an intense title race for the Astor Cup. With how this season has gone, expect one of which to win on Saturday night too.

Likely A Lot Of Green Flag Racing

The yellow flags are down this year. That’s a known fact. I don’t expect many on Saturday night either. Last year, we only had two cautions. In 2017, we had just five and one was on the opening lap. This year, we’ve seen two or fewer cautions in three of the last five races including two of which going green flag to checkered flag without a stoppage.

Indy had four cautions, Texas had three. Iowa had five. Pocono had four.

Expect to see four or fewer again on Saturday night.

Chevy Has Won A Lot Of Recent Races But Honda Nearing 2nd Straight Manufacturers Title

A year ago Honda was celebrating. See, they had just earned their first NTT IndyCar Series manufacturer’s title since 2011. But, when Chevrolet came back to the series in 2012, the bowties dominated the manufacturer war between the two. Chevy, came in and took Honda to the woodshed in winning the manufacturers title in five straight years.

That said something. Prior to 2012, Honda was the saving grace to the series. After joining Indy Car in 2003, Honda won the manufacturer championship in 2004 and again in 2005 when competing then with Chevrolet and Toyota. From 2006-’11, Honda was the sole engine supplier before Chevy re-entered in 2012.

Last year, was a redemption for season for Honda. It was a big accomplishment for them to not only knock Chevy off their perch, but to do so in the first year of the new unified package. They had the pace and durability.

This season, it’s more of the same. With three races remaining in the 2019 season, Honda currently has 1,231 points scored in the manufacturers battle. Chevy, has 1,142.

Only full-season entries earn manufacturer points, with the highest two finishers for each manufacturer at each race earning points based on the driver point system (50 for first place, 40 for second and so on; with double points awarded for the Indianapolis 500 and Sonoma). Bonuses are added for a race win (five points) as well as pole positions and being the fastest Indy 500 opening-day qualifier.

Durability is a key to the manufacturer point system, however. Each full-season entry is allotted four engines for the season to complete a total of 10,000 miles that includes testing, practice, qualifying and the races. If a car uses a fifth engine or more without completing the 10,000-mile threshold first, it becomes ineligible to earn manufacturer points.

Honda, has six wins this season and is coming off of a 1-2-3 finish two races ago in Mid-Ohio. They have two of the top four in the points standings and nine of the top 12. What makes this even better is, out of the nine drivers in the top 12, five different teams are represented. Furthermore, four of their six teams have won this season and that comes after all four organizations that they represented in 2018 reached victory lane.

For Honda, while they have the lead, Chevrolet is coming.

Chevy won four of the first six races in 2018 but just two of the final 11 for the rest of the season. They won only 1 of the first 4 races in 2019 too. That obviously led to a string of 12 victories in their last 15 tries for Honda heading into the Month of May and three for Chevy.

But, that’s where the bowties turned it on. Chevy has won seven of the last 10 races and is making this a battle again. They also won the Indy 500 for the second consecutive year too.

They seem to have the preferred package on ovals as Chevy has won all three superspeedway races now in 2019 and five straight ovals if you go back to last season. Furthermore, they’ve won 13 of the last 18 oval races overall.

While Penske and Chevrolet may be the ones to beat this weekend in Gateway, the final two races of the year may swing back to Honda.

The final two stops are on natural road courses and Honda drivers have won four of the five races run on them this year. The only one that they didn’t win came in the rain on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course. They’ve also won seven of the last eight natural road courses dating back to last season.

They’ve also done so with four different teams too. The only ones left to win are Dale Coyne Racing and Arrow Schmidt Peterson Motorsports.

Penske Short Oval Masters

2019 has been a great season for Team Penske. Currently, all three of their drivers sit in the top five of the NTT IndyCar Series points standings. They sit 1-2-4 in the oval standings too.

Saturday night is the final oval of the season. On one discipline of ovals – superspeedway’s, Penske is at their best.

On superspeedway’s the last couple of years, they’re 6-for-8, including sweeping all three race wins this year on them. In fact, since the start of the 2016 season, Penske has won seven of the 12 races contested on superspeedway’s.

What about short ovals? Well, they’re even better.

At Gateway, Penske is riding a four race win streak including both since the series’ return in 2017.

Newgarden, has finished first and seventh respectively in Gateway. Pagenaud, has finished third and fourth respectively. Power, has finished 20th and first respectively on the 1.25-mile St. Louis area oval.

On short ovals, Penske has won three of the four under this current aero package with the new car and six of the last seven overall.

Also, on ovals in general, Penske has won five straight and 13 of the last 18 overall.

Everyone Is Chasing Newgarden

Simon Pagenaud and Scott Dixon continue to gain on NTT IndyCar Series points leader Josef Newgarden. Alexander Rossi continues to slide. Meanwhile, Newgarden has just been a top five machine. Will Newgarden’s consistency and Rossi’s slide be enough for the Tennessee native to hold off his Andretti Autosport rival.

Will that consistency be enough to stave off an end of season push by Pagenaud and Dixon?

Since 2008, the driver leading the points standings at this point of the year has gone on to win the title six times. In fact, the last three years the points leader with three races remaining in the Indy Car season had won the title including four of the last five years too.

That’s great news for Newgarden who lucked out that despite finishing fifth in last Sunday’s ABC Supply 500 that he actually increased his points lead over Alexander Rossi.

“Although we didn’t win at Pocono, we were able to gain points and extend the gap between us and (Alexander) Rossi in the championship standings,” Newgarden said. “Now we focus on Gateway. It’s a track we feel really comfortable at and a place where I’ve had success in the PPG Chevy.”

For Rossi, he said that the move that Takuma Sato made on him on just the second corner of a 500 mile race could have cost him the championship. He went from 16 points down entering the weekend to 34 leaving it, as he had a chance to actually make up ground if not for that crash.

“After last weekend, I am really looking forward to forgetting about Pocono and moving on to (World Wide Technology Raceway),” Rossi said. “We didn’t come out of the last race with a tighter gap to the championship like we had hoped, so it is extremely important to go for the win at Gateway and grab all the points we can to keep fighting for the Astor Cup. We had a strong car at last year’s race at Gateway and ended up finishing second. The NAPA boys deserve another win this year and I’m hoping we’ll see them in victory lane Saturday night.”

See, Newgarden has scored five top five finishes in his last six starts on the season. He also has finished in the top five in all but three races run this season. That’s put a ton of pressure on Rossi to beat him.

Rossi, hasn’t won a race since June 23 as that’s the last time he’s paced the field out front of an Indy Car race too. Since Belle Isle 2, Rossi has led just 57 laps. His last three finishes have been sixth, fifth and 18th respectively. Heading to a track where he’s led just two career laps at, he could be in for a fight on Saturday night.

Meanwhile, Pagenaud and Dixon have outpaced Newgarden and Rossi in three of the last four races. Pagenaud, went from a 60+ point deficit to now under 50. He’s led 146 combined laps over the last four races including three top four results.

Dixon, has four consecutive top two finishes in his No. 9 Honda and has led 72 laps over the last four races himself. Despite going from 99 points down to 52, Dixon still thinks that he has to win another race.

“I’ve been pretty happy with the past several races,” Dixon said. “The whole PNC Bank team has done a great job finishing either first or second. It’s what you have to do. But we still need more wins. This is the go time part of the NTT IndyCar Series season. This championship is just so tight – you cannot afford to make any mistakes from here on out, or you’ll be on the outside looking in – really fast. “

In Gateway, Dixon has finished on the podium in each of his last two tries. He also has finished in the top two in each of the last four starts on the season too. On the last two ovals, Dixon has two runner-up finishes. Odds are, a podium is coming for the Iceman on Saturday.

“We’ve been on the podium here the past two years but haven’t been able to get that top step on the podium,” Dixon continued. “This Saturday would be the perfect time to break through.”

For Pagenaud and Newgarden, one of them likely will win though. At Gateway, Penske is riding a four race win streak including both since the series’ return in 2017.

Newgarden, has finished first and seventh respectively in Gateway. Pagenaud, has finished third and fourth respectively. Power, has finished 20th and first respectively on the 1.25-mile St. Louis area oval.

On short ovals like this one, Penske has won three of the four under this current aero package with the new car and six of the last seven overall. They’re 4-for-4 on ovals in 2019.

Also, on ovals in general, Penske has won five straight and 13 of the last 18 overall.

That’s great news for Newgarden and Pagenaud. For Newgarden’s sake, how is he not the favorite? He’s been superb on short ovals in his career. He just led 245 of 300 laps at Iowa last month and has won three out of the last five races on short ovals.

Chevy has had the preferred engine on ovals, most notably short ovals, so Rossi and Dixon have to be thinking podium this weekend and hope for bad luck for Newgarden.

Also, 10 of the last 11 races of the season have been won by one of these four drivers. The only one that they didn’t win was last weekend when Will Power was victorious in Pocono.

Furthermore, Team Penske, Chip Ganassi Racing and Andretti Autosport have won the last 11 Indy Car races on the season and 26 of the 31 races run with this new car. Plus, the top four in the oval standings so far? Penske-Penske-Andretti-Penske.

Furthermore, since the start of the 2015 season, this trio of teams have won 61 of the last 79 races run. That’s 78-percent.

Can Power Repeat?

Will Power has had a disappointing season thus far. But, now that the Team Penske driver ended a 15 race winless streak, the second longest of his Indy Car career, can get win for a second straight week? The latest he won a race in a season was race No. 15 in 2013. Last weekend was race No. 14.

In Pocono, Power had the car to beat as he won on the Tricky Triangle for the third time in four years.

“The win at Pocono is what we needed to really turn our season around,” Power said. “The guys on the Verizon Chevy have worked so hard all season and I’m glad they could finally celebrate a win. We feel like this is great momentum headed into this weekend at (World Wide Technology Raceway) where we’ve also had some success.”

Power has also now won at least one race every season of his Indy Car career as well. That’s 13 straight years. Only Scott Dixon who now has won a race in 15 straight years has more.

Two races ago in Mid-Ohio, you could see the relief in Power when he won the pole for the Honda Indy 200 at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. He just wanted so badly to turn that into a win. Unfortunately, he was on the wrong end of tire strategy on his first stint and settled for a fourth place result.

This season is wearing on him. Mid-Ohio was a prime example. He’s watched his Team Penske teammates win seven times this season alone. They’re in the title hunt. But, Power is after the spoiler role as he knows he’s likely too far out to win the title. So, why not win out?

Saturday night could be the spot where he keeps it all rolling still.

Power, won this race last year after leading 93 circuits. He started on the pole in 2017 but was collected in an opening lap crash. He’s had the pace, but hasn’t translated that into a win until last weekend. Maybe he wins again on Saturday night.

Penske, has won five straight and 13 of the last 18 overall on ovals. On short ovals, Penske has won three of the four under this current aero package with the new car and six of the last seven overall.

“I’ve made it no secret that I really enjoy racing at ovals these days, so I’m hoping we can make it two in a row,” Power continued. “We are going to keep racing hard for every possible win or championship point we can get. We’re focused and ready for more.”

Hunter-Reay Set To Make 250th Career Start On Saturday Night

The 2019 NTT IndyCar Series season has been an up-and-down year for Ryan Hunter-Reay. It started off with him qualifying fifth for the season opener in St. Pete but his engine let go 19 laps into the race. After that though was a stretch of seven top eight finishes in eight tries. Then came a three race stretch of finishes of 11th, 16th and 17th respectively.

In Mid-Ohio, he came home third. Last week in Pocono he was crashed again for a second straight year. Now, can he get going again?

Gateway isn’t the spot it can happen though. Unfortunately, the 1.25-mile St. Louis area race track hasn’t been too kind to him in the past. In two career starts, Hunter-Reay has finishes of 15th and 20th respectively. Both were DNF’s.

While he’s finished every race with the exception of St. Pete and Pocono this year, Gateway may be a spot his No. 28 Honda struggles. Luckily, the final two races of the season are ones were Hunter-Reay excelled at last year.

Despite that, Hunter-Reay feels like he can have a car that contends as he notes he should have had a better finish last year if not for a mechanical failure on his No. 28 Honda.

“Last season we were running in the top three when we had a fuel pump failure sideline us,” said Hunter-Reay. “Hopefully we can pick up where we left off and challenge for win number 19 this weekend.”

Also, Hunter-Reay becomes just the 15th Indy Car driver to make 250 or more starts. He’s currently sitting at 249, so when the green flag drops on Saturday night’s Bommarito Automotive Group 500, Hunter-Reay will have joined 14 other drivers to make at least 250 starts in the series.

“This Saturday night at (World Wide Technology Raceway) will mark my 250th career Indy car start which is pretty incredible,” said the 2012 series champion. “I feel extremely fortunate to have had such incredible support over the past 16 years enabling me to compete at the highest level. I’ve had the honor of representing many great partners along the way, however I am especially grateful to DHL for their unwavering support over the past nine seasons with Andretti Autosport on the No. 28 car. To me, 250 is just another number. Like any other race I compete it in, my only goal is to win.

Championship Contenders Must Qualify Well On Friday

Track position has been key in the NTT IndyCar Series this season. The worst a race winner has started in 2019 has been eighth. Well, with a short oval like Gateway up next, starting position is even more crucial. On ovals this year, the starting spot for the four race winners has been – 1st, 7th, 3rd and 5th respectively.

In Gateway, the last two race winners came from second and fourth respectively. For Josef Newgarden, Alexander Rossi, Simon Pagenaud and Scott Dixon, Friday’s qualifying round is just as important as the race. Miss the setup and you’ll put yourself in a huge hole for Saturday night’s race.

Newgarden, has started second and third respectively in his two Gateway tries. He’s finished first and seventh respectively. But, he led 245 of 300 laps on another short oval at Iowa back in July and has finishes of fourth, first, first and respectively on ovals this season.

Rossi has only led four total laps in Gateway and has started ninth and second respectively. He’s finished sixth and second on the Illinois race track too. On ovals this year, Rossi has finished second, second, sixth and respectively.

Pagenaud has been among the bests as he’s finished third and fourth respectively. He’s also started fourth and sixth too. In his 2019 oval starts, he’s finished first, sixth and fourth though.

Dixon is the one to watch. He’s never finished off the podium in Gateway. He’s started seventh and first respectively. He led 145 laps last year. His only issue is that he’s not had the pace on ovals in 2019. He’s finished 17th at Indy and Texas. He lucked into a runner-up in Iowa. He needs more pace at Gateway to stay in this hunt.

Prediction

1. 2 Newgarden – Hard to bet against him. Quickest in qualifying and fourth and second respectively in practice. Newgarden, won this race in 2017, led 245 of 300 laps on the last short oval this season and has won three of the last five races on short ovals.
2. 9 Dixon – He says that fuel strategy may benefit them on Saturday night. He starts eighth but I think he can get his third podium in-a-row in Gateway and stretches his fuel for his fifth straight top two.
3. 22 Pagenaud – They worked on race running a lot in final practice and came in P7. He says they think they found something from Iowa to help them this weekend. He was fourth in qualifying and has four straight top six finishes entering this weekend. Pagenaud, also has two top four finishes in as many tries in Gateway.
4. 12 Power – He has a good race and gives Penske three of the top four finishers again. Power, qualified third and has two straight top five finishes on the season and won here last year.
5. 19 Ferrucci – He’s had a great weekend and has been stellar on ovals. He’s good again on Saturday night to finish in the top five.