BRISTOL, Tenn – You can forgive the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series drivers if they’re looking ahead. Next week is the final off week of the season for them. It will end a stretch of nine straight race weekends. Plus, it will be almost playoff time as well.

But, first up, is the Bristol night race. Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET/NBCSN/PRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) is always a must see event. While the crowd has dwindled in the last several years, it’s still among the marquee events in NASCAR.

How To Watch

Coverage – 7:30 p.m. ET

Green Flag – 7:46 p.m. ET

TV – NBCSN

Radio – PRN

Stage Lengths – 125/125/250

Defending Race Winner – Kurt Busch

Points Battle – Bristol A Strong Track For Wildcard Drivers

Heading into this weekend, we have seven wildcard spots available in the Cup Series playoffs. Realistically, we have 11 drivers going for those nine spots. Coincidentally enough, Bristol is a strong spot for most of those wildcard drivers too.

Aric Almirola is second in the wildcard battle but he has struggled though at Bristol. His last top five came in 2014. He was 31st in this race last year and 37th in the spring race. He’s led a total of two laps in his career on the high banked Tennessee oval. In practice on Friday though, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver was third in final practice and 10th and 11th fastest respectively on the 10 lap average chart.

William Byron is in the same boat. He’s finished 18th, 23rd and 16th respectively in Cup action at Bristol but ninth and 10th respectively on the 10 lap averages.

Erik Jones has been feast or famine. He does have two top five finishes but those are his lone top 10 results in five tries. But, he enters this weekend with four top four finishes in his last five tries including six top eight’s in his last eight tries on the year overall. He was second and 14th respectively on the single lap runs but fifth and second on 10 lap averages too.

That’s where the questions stop though.

Ryan Blaney is arguably the top wildcard driver at Bristol. Blaney, has three top 10 finishes in his last four Bristol starts including a seventh place run in this race last year and fourth this past spring. He led 221 laps on the concrete oval in 2018 and 158 more in April. He also enters this weekend with three top 10 finishes in his last four starts on the year and six in his last nine. He was sixth and second respectively in practice on Friday including being quickest in final practice on the 10 lap average report.

Kyle Larson has four top 10 finishes in his last five tries including a runner-up in both races last year. He led 202, 70, 200 and 17 laps respectively between 2017 and 2018. Also, the Chip Ganassi Racing driver has four top eight finishes in his last five starts on the season and six top 10’s in his last eight overall.

Clint Bowyer has been strong too. He has four top 10 finishes in five tries with Stewart-Haas Racing at Bristol including seven top 10 finishes in his last nine overall tries there.

Jimmie Johnson has also been strong in Bristol. He has three consecutive top 10 finishes to go along with a top 11 in six straight tries. Since 2014, his finishes at Bristol are – 19th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 23rd, 7th, 1st, 11th, 3rd, 9th and 10th respectively.

Ryan Newman has been strong. He came home ninth in the spring race and has four straight top 12’s there.

Daniel Suarez finished eighth with his first start at Bristol with SHR in April.

As you can see, we can very well have a new winner on Saturday night.

Will We See A 1st Time Winner? 

Heading into this weekend’s race, 16 points separate Ryan Newman in 15th to Daniel Suarez in 17th. Jimmie Johnson is 18th, 12 points behind the cutoff spot to Clint Bowyer. These four will be competing against each other and each knows that they can’t afford to give up much ground.

Then, think about this, Matt DiBenedetto and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. could easily win this race too. DiBenedetto, was fourth and first respectively on Friday in single lap speed and second and third on 10 lap averages. Stenhouse, has two runner-up finishes in his career in Thunder Valley and was seventh fastest in final practice himself.

What if one of these drivers win?

Well, it takes a playoff spot away and gives one likely spot to these four drivers for the postseason.

So, in order to fully control your own destiny, you have to win. That’s something these four drivers haven’t done a lot of lately. Heck, the playoff wildcard drivers in general haven’t.

Ryan Blaney and Aric Almirola head the list but they have just two career wins to his credit each. William Byron, Kyle Larson and Erik Jones are next up and are the final three likely safe to be in but Larson has five wins while Jones has one career victory and Byron zero. Between them, this group has 10 career Cup wins with one driver with five wins, two with two, one with one and another without any trips to victory lane.

Then, you have Newman who hasn’t won in 78 races. His team, Roush/Fenway Racing, hasn’t won in 91. Clint Bowyer has been shutout of victory lane for 44 races. Suarez, has never won while Johnson hasn’t won in his last 82 starts.

Do you think any of those bubble drivers wins on Saturday night with those streaks?

Plus, Johnson’s last five finishes on the season are – 30th, 30th, 15th, 19th and now 34th. Bowyer’s last nine finishes are – 35th, 11th, 37th, 34th, 6th, 20th, 11th, 20th and now 37th. That’s four finishes outside of the top 30 and six outside of the top 20. He went from +73 in the points after Kansas to +6 in the standings leaving Michigan. Suarez, has two top five finishes since June 10 and both occurred on the same track.

Factor all of this with Stewart-Haas Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske winning each of the last 10 Bristol night races and you get why one of the drivers who has already won will reach victory lane on Saturday night.

JGR/Penske Shows Speed On Friday, Will It Translate To A Victory On Saturday?

It’s no secret, heading into this weekend’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET/NBCSN/PRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) the Team Penske or the Joe Gibbs Racing camps were the ones to beat. Combined with Stewart-Haas Racing, these three organizations have combined to win each of the last 10 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races at the Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway for the August night race.

Then, factor in how good they were in practice on Friday from Thunder Valley, you’d see that this group is once again the favorites. In the first practice session, seven of the top eight speeds belonged to JGR or Penske. In final practice, they pace dipped a bit but everyone was working on varying plans.

But, I’d caution just how much of a favorite they are. Yes, there are some drivers on these two teams that are ones to beat, but there are a few I’d be wary of.

Team Penske hasn’t won a Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race since June 10. They were so close last weekend but their fuel mileage cost them a victory at the Michigan International Speedway despite leading 122 of 200 laps overall.

Penske, has looked good at Bristol lately though, it’s just that the Busch brothers have stolen their thunder with wins. But, if anyone can top the Busch duo, it is Penske.

Ryan Blaney is the obvious pick for them. He was sixth and second respectively in practice on Friday. Blaney is arguably the top wildcard driver at Bristol too. Blaney, has three top 10 finishes in his last four Bristol starts including a seventh place run in this race last year and fourth this past spring. He led 221 laps on the concrete oval in 2018 and 158 more in April. He also enters this weekend with three top 10 finishes in his last four starts on the year and six in his last nine.

Joey Logano has seven top 10 finishes in his last eight Bristol starts including a third place run in the spring after leading 146 laps. Also, his last seven Bristol night race finishes are – 8th, 5th, 1st, 1st, 10th, 13th and 4th respectively. He was third and 13th respectively in practice on Friday but despite having a quick race car, he’s struggled on the season entering this weekend too. Logano, hasn’t had a top five since June 30 at Chicagoland Speedway. Four of his last six finishes have seen him result in 13th or worse efforts.

Another driver I’m not confident in is Brad Keselowski. His last seven Bristol finishes are 18th, 33rd, 34th, 29th, 23rd, 16th and 18th respectively. He does have three top 10 finishes in his last four starts on the season but he was only seventh and 25th respectively in practice this weekend.

Overall, the Penske threesome led 344 laps in April. If all goes right, one of these three can win. The key is, if “all goes right.”

What about JGR?

Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin are likely their best shots. ‘

Jones, has been hot lately with four top four finishes in his last five starts on the year to go along with finishes of second in this race in 2016 and fifth last year. In the XFINITY Series, Jones has two wins in his last three starts including four top eight’s in five tries. He was second and 14th respectively on the single lap runs on Friday but fifth and second on long run pace.

Hamlin, was first and 18th but finished fifth on this track in April. Also, Hamlin enters as arguably the hottest driver in NASCAR right now with five consecutive top five finishes and four of which in the top three. He was sixth in final practice on long run speed.

The other two drivers, I’m not sold on.

Kyle Busch was fifth and 16th respectively on single lap runs in practice and has won three of the last four starts at Bristol, but in three of his last seven he’s also finished 20th or worse too. He was also 17th quick in final practice on the 10 lap average chart. Also, Busch has just one top five finish in his last five starts on the season too.

Martin Truex Jr. was eighth quickest in both practice sessions on single lap and eighth fastest on the 10 lap average in final practice on Friday in his No. 19 Toyota. He has shown past speed on the Tennessee oval but his finishes just haven’t been there. Truex, has one top 10 finish in his last 14 Bristol starts. His last three finishes are 30th, 30th and 17th respectively. He’s finished 20th or worse in 11 of his last 12. His last top five came way back in 2012.

Can RFR Steal Playoff Spot

The last 10 Bristol night race winners have come from either Stewart-Haas Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing or Team Penske. Well, maybe a new team can jump in the win column on Saturday night for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race (7:30 p.m. ET/NBCSN/PRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) at the Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway.

Roush/Fenway Racing was quick in the second of two Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series practice sessions from Thunder Valley on Friday. Both Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Ryan Newman found themselves in the top 10 of the final practice speed chart.

Now, can either of them win tomorrow night?

This weekend’s race could very well be the last spot that we see a fluke winner this season. Stenhouse Jr. knows it. He’s well aware that Saturday night’s race is likely his last chance to be a part of this year’s Cup Series playoff field. The Roush/Fenway Racing driver currently sits 21st in the points standings with three races remaining in the regular season. That’s not a lot of time to make up that much ground in the points. He’s 84 points behind.

So, the only other way to get into the postseason is to win. Bristol, is just the spot too.

Stenhouse may have three of his last four Bristol starts result in finishes of 14th or worse, including a 33rd place run in April, but prior to that, he was a stud on the concrete oval.

The Mississippi native had six top 10 finishes in a nine race (four year) span including two runner-ups. While he’s never led a lap in his No. 17 Ford at Bristol before, all he’s wanting to do is lead the final one on Saturday evening.

SHR, JGR and Penske may have won this race in each of the last 10 years but the team that won this race in four straight years prior to that was RFR.

If Stenhouse can win, just think about the playoff implications for others. Right now, the final playoff spot goes to Jimmie Johnson. If Stenhouse wins, it moves up to Clint Bowyer as that would move Johnson to the outside looking in and him battling with Newman and Daniel Suarez to get back in and knock Bowyer out. It would certainly be the turning point that we’ve been looking for.

But, Newman can win too. He brought his No. 6 Ford home inside of the top 10 back in April. He’s been a top 15 machine and with a little luck could steal a win himself.

He hasn’t won a race since 2017. RFR hasn’t won a race since that season either. Maybe, these winless droughts come to an end.

Busch Brothers Playground

Between them, Kyle Busch and Kurt Busch have combined to win 14 Cup Series races at Bristol. Furthermore, they’ve won in each of the last four Cup races on the high banked concrete oval too.

Can they keep that streak going this weekend? I think so.

Kyle won the spring race in April to go along with three wins in his last four Bristol starts. But, he’s struggled on the season lately though with just one top five finish in his last seven tries. Also, when he’s not winning in Bristol, he’s not finishing up front. Four of his last seven starts have also seen him finish 20th or worse, three of those results being 35th or worse.

What about Kurt?

He won already at Kentucky and is the defending race winner of the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. He finished runner-up to brother Kyle in the spring race. Kyle, finished runner-up to Kurt last month in Kentucky.

The elder Busch has three top five finishes in his last four Bristol starts overall.

Starting Position For Whatever Reason Hasn’t Mattered

A track like Bristol you would think that track position would be key right? Well, what if I told you that only two of the last six races have seen the winner come from a top 10 starting spot. In fact, four of the last six winners have come from the 11th, 17th, 18th and 24th spots.

Will that happen again?

Track Surface Has Frustrated Drivers

The common theme for the NASCAR drivers this weekend at the Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway has been the way that the racetrack was prepared. First, the PJ1 traction compound was applied to the lower racing line in both corners of the high banked Tennessee oval. This has been a summer of that as the PJ1 has been added to most of the race tracks since June in order to create better racing with more lanes available to race on.

The drivers were fine with this application being added to the lower groove at Bristol. They expected it. But, without the drivers knowing, the track grinded down and worked on the high groove to make it unraceable.

That absolutely has drove the drivers crazy this weekend.

Both Busch brothers said that when they saw how the top lane looked on Friday, they were furious. They immediately texted the others drivers in a group text and none of them on the other end of the text knew that the track decided to do this.

The drivers said that SMI (the track owners) told them that all they did was scrape the rubber off. The drivers aren’t buying what they’re selling. The competitors think that SMI did this so that no one could race near the wall this weekend. With the added grip in the lower groove of Turns 1-2 and 3-4, this has become a one groove race track. To add to that, no one knew that the track was altered which is a huge problem in the NASCAR garage.

That, in theory, would make it like the old Bristol where drivers have to knock the car out of the way in front in order to get by. It’s the way that the Truck Series race went on Thursday night to where drivers had to make bold moves to get to the bottom. This is exactly what the track and race fans want to see though.

The Cup drivers feel Saturday’s race will be the same way which for the fans isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but for the drivers they don’t like that they don’t have as much real estate around just a half-mile track to race on.

With lap times in the 15-17 second range, everyone is going to have to go to the bottom of the race track to get around Thunder Valley. Where this year is different than the golden years, there’s way more downforce so now everyone can hold it to the bottom even easier now, especially with the PJ1 compound on the surface.

It’s going to be hard to get to the cars in front with dirty air and more downforce. If everyone is running the same racing line, lapped traffic is going to make this race interesting.

The drivers though feel like the track should have told them before they showed up this weekend that they were going to alter the top groove.

Is Bristol Johnson’s Best Shot At A Win?

Jimmie Johnson Johnson has never missed the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs before. Since the postseason format began in 2004, he’s the only driver to be a part of them each and every year. Right now, there are only three races remaining in the regular season and Johnson is on the outside looking in by 12 points.

But, a win on Saturday night would end any speculation about Johnson not making it. He’d automatically be in.

This is uncharted territory for the seven-time series champion to be in though. His seven titles rank him tied with Richard Petty and Dale Earnhardt for most ever. His 83 trips to victory lane are one shy of tying Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip for fourth most all-time. He’s 10 wins shy of tying Jeff Gordon for third most in fact.

A few years ago, it was a question of when, not if, Johnson moved his way past Petty and Earnhardt for most championship in the history of NASCAR as well as pass Gordon for third on the all-time wins list. After all, he only needed one championship to do so and he had already won three just since 2010. Plus, he only needed 10 wins to tie Gordon and 11 to pass him. He had won 14 times between 2014 and 2016 alone. He had at least four victories in any given single season in 12 of his last 13 seasons. Furthermore, Johnson had at least three wins in all but one of his years in NASCAR’s premiere series.

No one was better than Johnson was in the 2000’s. He was untouchable. Then, 2017 happened. That was the start of his decline.

Johnson, did win three times that year, but all were kind of fluky. He led just 217 laps for the entire season, worst ever for him. His four top five finishes and 11 top 10’s? Worst ever. His 16.8 average finish? You guessed it, worst ever.

How would he rebound for 2018?

It went further south.

Johnson, failed to win in a season for the first time of his career. His top five finishes went from four to two. His top 10’s remained level at 11. His laps led went from 217 to just 40. His average finish went from 16.8 to 16.7. While he made the playoffs, he was bounced early.

Two straight abysmal years led to a change up top. Gone was Chad Knaus for 2019, the only crew chief that Johnson had ever known in his full time Cup career. In, was Kevin Meendering. Gone also was his long time sponsor in Lowe’s. In came Ally. Gone was the past racing package, in was a new “drafting package” instead.

2019 was supposed to be a year of change. After all, Hendrick Motorsports looked to be turning the corner again.

Unfortunately, 2019 looks a lot like 2018 and 2018 looked a lot like 2017. After 21 races, HMS made another crew chief swap with Johnson. Out was Meendering, in was Cliff Daniels, a 31 year old with no past crew chief experience.

Through 21 races, Johnson had no wins, three top five finishes and eight top 10’s. He’s led just 81 laps. His average finishing spot is 15.3. His last three finishes were 30th, 30th and 15th place respectively.

Watkins Glen was another reset button. Unfortunately, two bad pit calls and another bad finish after what looked like it could have been a solid day put Johnson over the top. Watkins Glen was supposed to be different. It looked different. He had a fast No. 48 Chevrolet. His teammate was untouchable up front. Johnson, was in position to get a top 10 and move further ahead above the cutoff line in the points standings and he left with a similar result for what he’s seen all year – 19th.

His winless streak is now 82. That can end on a track he’s statistically been great at lately. He has three consecutive top 10 finishes to go along with a top 11 in six straight tries. Since 2014, his finishes at Bristol are – 19th, 4th, 2nd, 4th, 23rd, 7th, 1st, 11th, 3rd, 9th and 10th respectively.

The intensity for him is, Bristol is also a strong track for playoff bubble drivers like Clint Bowyer, Ryan Newman, Daniel Suarez and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. too. If one of them wins, Johnson’s playoff chances get much worse. So, he has to take care of his own destiny on Saturday and that’s to win.

Can Bowyer Put Himself In Playoffs With Bristol Win?

Clint Bowyer has struggled lately and I do mean struggled. Bowyer, has just one top five finish since Memorial Day weekend. He went from 73 points up in the playoff standings in early May to right on the bubble in late August.

How does one do that?

Six finishes of 20th or worse is how. Combine that with a lack of stage points and you get Bowyer in 15th in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series standings. But, a win in Saturday night’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race would change everything. It would end a 44 race winless drought and stamp his name into the postseason as a result of that too.

Plus, Bristol is a place that it could happen for him as well. He has four top 10 finishes in five tries with Stewart-Haas Racing at Bristol including seven top 10 finishes in his last nine overall tries there. This is his time to get a much needed top five finish, if not go all out for a win.

Bowman Needs To Turn Things Around

Alex Bowman finally got over the hump on the final day of June. The Hendrick Motorsports driver won his first career Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at the Chicagoland Speedway. It was his sixth top 10 finish in a span of eight races including four of which being in the top two.

See, from Talladega through Kansas, Bowman brought his No. 88 Chevrolet home runner-up for three consecutive weeks. The win was long overdue. Unfortunately, that’s his lone bright spot since really the calendar turned to June in fact.

Over his last nine starts, Bowman has finished inside the top 10 just three times – one of which was that win in Chicago on June 30 and another a 10th place run last Sunday. His last five finishes since that victory are – 21st, 17th, 14th, 20th, 14th and 10th respectively.

He’s been a non factor. Yes, his win stamps his name into the Cup Series playoffs, but if he wants to make any kind of noise in it, he needs to get going again.

Chase Elliott was in a similar slump before his win a couple of weeks in Watkins Glen. Bowman, needs to get out of his slump in similar fashion this weekend in Bristol. He was in the top 10 in both races last year on the concrete oval. He needs a top 10 again on Saturday night. So far, it looks likely. Bowman, was ninth and fifth respectively in practice on Friday.

Chip Ganassi Racing Should Shine But Lacking Long Run Speed

Heading into this weekend, the Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway seemed like a track that we should see Chip Ganassi strong again. For whatever reason, it’s a place that just suits the current drivers’ driving style. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that both drivers enter this weekend trending up as well.

Kyle Larson has four top 10 finishes in his last five Bristol starts including a runner-up in both races last year. He led 202, 70, 200 and 17 laps respectively between 2017 and 2018. Also, the Chip Ganassi Racing driver has four top eight finishes in his last five starts on the season and six top 10’s in his last eight overall. He’s really starting to find his stride.

He’s now +71 in the playoff standings and looking like not only is he going to make the postseason but he can make some noise in it too.

His teammate Kurt Busch is arguably one of the best drivers to ever race on the half mile track. He won already this season in the last primetime event at Kentucky in July. He is the defending race winner of the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race too. He finished runner-up to brother Kyle in the spring race as well. Kyle, finished runner-up to Kurt last month in Kentucky.

The elder Busch has three top five finishes in his last four Bristol starts overall.

While all that is good, both drivers struggled in practice on Friday in terms of long run pace. Larson, was 10th and sixth respectively on the speed charts in single lap runs but Bristol isn’t about one lap, it’s about 500. We’ve seen some long green flag runs in the past. On the 10 lap average chart, Larson was just 11th and 15th respectively.

Busch, was 15th and 21st respectively.

If they can make the changes in the setups for good longer run pace, then watch out.

Bristol Not One Of Truex Jr’s Best Tracks But Has Still Been Fast

Martin Truex Jr. finally got his first career short track victory earlier this season in Richmond. Now, he’s searching for his second on Saturday night at the Bristol (Tenn) Motor Speedway. The only difference is, Truex has been strong in the past at Richmond, not so much at Bristol.

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has one top 10 finish in his last 14 Bristol starts. His last three finishes are 30th, 30th and 17th respectively. He’s finished 20th or worse in 11 of his last 12. His last top five came way back in 2012.

This could be the weekend that Truex’s recent hot streak comes to an end. Yes, he has four straight top six finishes in his No. 19 Toyota but just look at what he’s done lately in Bristol and it has me thinking this may not be his week to win.

“The Bristol night race is one that every driver wants to win,’’ Truex acknowledged. “It’s a big weekend for [his sponsor] Bass Pro Shops sponsoring the race, so we want to do our best to have a good run for them.

“If you look at the stats, Bristol hasn’t been one of our better tracks, but we’ve had so many crazy things happen over the years that cost us good finishes. Like last year, we were racing for the lead in the last 100 laps and get wrecked. Then in the spring this year, we made our way to the top five and were in a good spot but had a loose wheel.

“Our team has been improving at Bristol and we’ve got some nice momentum from the past month or so that gives me confidence we can run up front this weekend and hopefully put it all together to have a good finish.’’

Truex, did show some speed on Friday too. He was eighth quickest in both practices on single lap runs as well as eighth in final practice on the 10 lap average chart too.

Prediction

1. 12 Blaney – I went with him last week and it nearly paid off. But, Blaney has been so fast lately including on Friday with being sixth and second respectively on single lap speed and quickest in final practice on the 10 lap average report. Blaney, has three top 10 finishes in his last four Bristol starts including 10th in this race in 2017 and seventh last year. He also finished fourth in the spring race. Furthermore, Blaney led 221 laps combined in 2018 and 158 more back in April. He has three top 10 finishes in his last four starts on the year and the only reason it’s not four straight is because he ran out of gas at the end of last weekend’s race in Michigan. The Ohio native also has six top 10 finishes (9 starts) since June 10.
2. 20 Jones – Jones has been hot lately with four top four finishes in his last five starts on the year to go along with finishes of second in this race in 2016 and fifth last year. In the XFINITY Series, Jones has two wins in his last three starts including four top eight’s in five tries. He was second and 14th respectively in practice to go along with being fifth and second on the 10 lap average report too.
3. 22 Logano – He gets back rolling with his first top five since June 30 on Saturday night. Logano, has seven top 10 finishes in his last eight Thunder Valley starts. He was third in the spring after leading 146 laps. He was also third and 13th respectively in practice on single lap runs and first and fifth on the 10 lap average chart.
4. 95 DiBenedetto – He finished sixth in the 2016 spring race with BK Racing. He was fourth and first in practice on Friday and second and third on the 10 lap average chart.
5. 11 Hamlin – I think his top five streak continues on. Hamlin, finished fifth on this racetrack in April. Also, Hamlin enters as arguably the hottest driver in NASCAR right now with five consecutive top five finishes and four of which in the top three.