At this point last year, we had three drivers (Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr.) combined to win 16 of the 22 races of the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season. The only races that they didn’t win were three superspeedways (Austin Dillon and Erik Jones – Daytona, Joey Logano – Talladega), 1 of the 2 road courses (Chase Elliott – Watkins Glen) and Martinsville and Michigan (Clint Bowyer).

But, as we head to the 23rd race of the 2019 season, we’ve had three drivers (Busch, Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin) win 11 of 22 races. There are more winners this season. The action is closer. The favorites aren’t yet known. Over the last nine weeks, we’ve seen nine different winners from six different teams. Also, heading to Michigan this weekend, we’ve had five straight weeks that a different teams has won, three of which being Chevrolet.

See, at this point last year, we all know that it was a foregone conclusion that Busch, Harvick and Truex Jr. would be in the Championship 4. They were leaps and bounds better than everyone else. They proved that true as they marched to the final round at the Homestead-Miami Speedway last November.

This year, I can’t name four drivers who stand out as the best right now. Yes, Busch, Truex and Logano seem to be ones we can pencil in, but with how two of the three have looked recently, I’m not so sure anymore.

Busch, hasn’t won a race since June 2. He has one top five over his last six starts overall on the year.

Logano, has just one top five over his last seven starts in his No. 22 Ford. He has just two top 10 finishes in his last five overall. He hasn’t won since June 10.

Kevin Harvick sits third in points but has just one win this season. That win is his lone top five in his last 11 starts.

Brad Keselowski hasn’t scored a top five since June 30 (Chicago). He does have three top 10 finishes in-a-row, but none better than eighth since July.

Trust any of them?

Penske has one win since the All-Star break. Stewart-Haas Racing has one win in 24 races.

What about the other SHR drivers than Harvick? Aric Almirola hasn’t scored a top five finish in 19 races. Clint Bowyer is barely in the playoffs (+12) but he hasn’t had a top five finish since Pocono on June 2 (9 races). In that time frame, five of his last nine finishes have been 20th or worse. Daniel Suarez is on the outside looking in with six of his last seven finishes being 17th or worse.

Hendrick Motorsports has won three times this season but none of the four are on top of their games right now. Yes, Chase Elliott just won by his previous seven starts saw him finish outside of the top 10. Alex Bowman has the other win in 2019 but he has just two top 10 finishes over his last nine starts. William Byron is +60 but three of his last four finishes have been 12th or worse as well as five of his last eight overall. Jimmie Johnson is tied with Ryan Newman for the final spot but his last four finishes are 30th, 30th, 15th and 19th respectively. Newman once looked hot but his last two finishes are 14th and 25th respectively.

That’s taken care of basically 12 of the top 18 drivers. Trust any of them to win this year’s championship at this point?

So, who can you trust?

We saw how Penske is with Logano and Keselowski right not but one driver rising is Ryan Blaney. He has three straight top 10 finishes in his No. 12 Ford including six of the last eight. He’s the top Penske driver right now.

What about Joe Gibbs Racing? Busch may be struggling but his other three teammates aren’t. Denny Hamlin has four consecutive top five finishes in his No. 11 Toyota including three straight top three’s. He’s also had five top five’s in his last seven overall. Erik Jones has made up 67 points over the last four weeks as he’s had four straight top four finishes in his No. 20 Toyota. Furthermore, Jones has six top eight finishes over the last seven weeks and a top eight in all but three races since the start of May. Martin Truex Jr. has three straight top six finishes in his No. 19 Toyota to go along with six top 10’s in his last eight overall.

You also can’t count out Chip Ganassi Racing. They’re heating up too. Kurt Busch won in Kentucky and has three top 10 finishes over his last five starts on the year in his No. 1 Chevrolet. His teammate Kyle Larson has three top eight finishes in his last four starts in his No. 42 Chevrolet to go along with five top 10’s over the last seven weeks overall.

These are your top six drivers right now. Are they the favorites to win this year’s championship?