It’s time for the final wildcard race of the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series regular season. Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen (3 p.m. ET/NBCSN/MRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) should be another fun race on the Watkins Glen International road course.

How To Watch

Coverage – 2:30 p.m. ET

Green Flag – 3:18 p.m. ET

TV – NBCSN

Radio – MRN

Distance – 90 Laps/220.86 Miles

Stage Lengths – 20/20/50

Defending Race Winner – Chase Elliott

Toyota The Ones To Beat Still

Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports may have been fast on Saturday at the Watkins Glen International road course, but they still have to beat the Toyota’s in Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen (3 p.m. ET/NBCSN/MRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio). I don’t know if they can beat the Toyota’s on outright speed.

Last weekend at the Pocono Raceway, Joe Gibbs Racing finished 1-2-3 for the second time of the year already. In last year’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at the Glen, Toyota’s finished 2-3-4-5. Heck, in the only other road course race this season in Sonoma, JGR finished 1-2.

In practice on Saturday, JGR was 2-3-7-9 in the first session this morning and 2-5-7-10 in final practice. Throw in Matt DiBenedetto’s No. 95 Toyota with Leavine Family Racing and they had 2-3-5-7-10 in the final session of the day.

Good luck topping that.

Denny Hamlin enters this weekend with three straight top five finishes in his No. 11 Toyota including two straight top two’s. He also won this race in 2016 and was fourth in 2017 as well. Furthermore, if you go back six weeks, Hamlin has four top five finishes. He was third and seventh respectively on the speed charts on Saturday and second in final practice on the 10 lap average chart.

Erik Jones finished 10th in 2017 and fifth last year. If he gains another five spots he will win on Sunday. Jones, has three consecutive top three finishes in his No. 20 Toyota on the season and four top seven results in his last five races too. Heading into the Kentucky, he was 13 points behind the cutoff. Heading into Watkins Glen, he’s 39 points to the good. He was ninth and 10th respectively on single lap speed and eighth on the 10 lap average.

Martin Truex Jr. was seventh and second respectively in his No. 19 Toyota in practice. He won this race in 2017 and was second last year. He won at Sonoma in June too. In fact, if you go back to the 2017 Watkins Glen race, his road course finishes are first (WGI), first Sonoma (2018), second at Watkins Glen (2018), 14th on the ROVAL (2018) but was leading on the final lap and first at Sonoma (2019). That’s four top two finishes in his last five tries.

Then there’s Kyle Busch who was second and fifth respectively in practice and 10th on the 10 lap averages. He has four straight top seven finishes in Watkins Glen and a top 10 in all but two career starts.

DiBenedetto, finished fourth in Sonoma back in June and is a legit sleeper to win this weekend.

Penske Has Struggled As Of Late

Logano, won this race in 2015 and was second in 2016 but was only 24th and 37th respectively the last two years. He was also just 10th and 19th respectively in practice on Saturday too.

Keselowski, had five top seven finishes in a seven year span between 2011 and 2016 including three runner-ups and a third place effort, but was only 15th and 17th respectively since. He was eighth and 17th respectively in practice on Saturday himself.

Blaney, was eighth in 2017 but 12th last year. He was the best Penske in practice chiming in sixth and 11th respectively on single lap speed and third on the 10 lap averages.

I wouldn’t count on them finding their mojo this weekend.

Regular Season Championship On The Line Too

Their manner of performance has varied at times – checkered flags versus consistent excellence – but Team Penske’s Joey Logano and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch have made the regular season Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series title, an intriguing “race within the races.”

Logano holds a six-point edge on Busch atop the points standings entering this weekend’s Watkins Glen race. The driver of the No. 22 Team Penske Ford has led the standings for the last seven weeks and for 10 weeks total on the 21-race season.  The lowest he’s been ranked is fourth – following races at Martinsville, Va. and Texas.

Busch, the driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota, has led the points for nine weeks, and been second to Logano for the last seven weeks. In that seven-race stretch, Busch has been as close to Logano as a single point (following Sonoma, Calif,) and as far off as 18 points (after races in Chicago and Daytona) during this time period.

Their statistics on the season are equally as competitive. Logano has two race wins, won two pole positions, has nine top-five and 14 top-10 finishes through the opening 21 races. Busch has four wins, 11 top-fives and 18 top-10s. Neither driver has suffered a DNF.

The leader of the points standings following the regular season finale at Indianapolis will receive a 15-point bonus to start the Playoffs as the regular season champion, while second in the points earns 10. Additionally, each win throughout the season is worth five Playoff points and a stage win nets a single Playoff point. So, as it stands now Busch would receive 28 points (for his four wins and eight stage wins) and Logano would receive 17 bonus points (for his two wins, seven stage wins).

The regulars season champion 15-point bonus is significant for either of these two competitors, who have consistently dominated the top of the season standings.

And both drivers have been good at this week’s venue, in particular. Logano has four wins here – one in the Monster Energy Series (2015) and three in the Xfinity Series (2015-16, 2018). Busch has a pair of Cup wins at Watkins Glen (2008 and 2013) and one Xfinity win (2017).

The pair come into the weekend off ninth place (Busch) and 13^thplace (Logano) showings at Pocono last week.

“Watkins Glen has obviously been a really good place for me over the years and a place I really enjoy,’’ Busch said. “We’ve just got to keep coming to the track and executing like we have.

“There are a lot of factors in strategy that affect a road course race and hope we can execute like we have been and get another win. Certainly, the bonus points from that and trying to win the regular season championship could be a big deal in the playoffs.’’

Playoff Battle Getting Clearer

We’re down to five races left in the Cup Series regular season. Currently, nine drivers have guaranteed spots into the postseason via race wins. Seven more drivers hold down wildcard spots with at least two wildcard slots being available for the 10 race postseason.

But, among the drivers to have not won yet, who is sitting pretty and who’s not?

Aric Almirola is only 94 points to the good and the top wildcard driver because he rarely has bad finishes. Almirola, has 10 top 10 finishes in 2019 but six of those came in the first seven races of the year. Out of the last 14 races, he’s brought his No. 10 Ford inside of the op 10 just four times. Despite that, his worst finish in that time frame is 17th as he’s a top 15 machine. While he hasn’t scored a top five in the last 18 races, if he can just keep getting top 15’s he should have more than enough points banked to make the playoffs.

Blaney, is +79 and trending in the right direction. He has five top 10 finishes in his last seven starts on the year including three in the top six in his No. 12 Ford. He had just four top 10 finishes in the first 14 events of the year. I think it’s only a matter of time before he passed Almirola as the top wildcard driver.

William Byron is +62 and looking good too. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has emerged a lot like Blaney lately. Byron, has three top eight finishes in his last five starts on the season and looks like a contender in his No. 24 Chevrolet. I too think he can catch Almirola to move into the second wildcard position.

Another hot driver is Erik Jones. He has three consecutive top three finishes in his No. 20 Toyota on the season and four top seven results in his last five races too. Heading into the Kentucky, he was 13 points behind the cutoff. Heading into Watkins Glen, he’s 39 points to the good. I like his direction.

Kyle Larson is starting to emerge too. He has four top 10 finishes in his last six starts on the year in his No. 42 Chevrolet including three of which being in the top five.

But, that’s where the line for me stops. Clint Bowyer (+12) and Ryan Newman (+12) hold the final two spots. Jimmie Johnson (-12), Daniel Suarez (-31), Paul Menard (-68) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-88) are all four battling for the final two spots.

Menard and Stenhouse aren’t showing any signs of being contenders to win and aren’t any where close to getting enough points to get into the playoffs on strength.

Johnson, has two top 10 finishes in his last eight starts on the year with the last three weeks being 30th, 30th and 15th respectively.

Suarez’ last six finishes are – 17th, 24th, 40th, 8th, 19th and 24th respectively. With the way that they are trending, I don’t know if they can make the playoffs without winning. But, Suarez has never won a Cup race before and Johnson is riding an 80 race winless streak now.

That means Bowyer and Newman are barely good enough but might get by. Bowyer, hasn’t had a top five finish in the last eight races and just has scored two top 10 finishes since the Coke 600.

Newman, is looking good though with five top 10 finishes in the last seven. How ironic is it that the two that got in a fist fight after the All-Star race are fighting for the final two spots in the playoffs?

Bowyer, Johnson and Suarez are sliding but one gets in.

Is Watkins Glen Suarez’ Last Shot?

The 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series started off much better for Daniel Suarez. He had four top 10 finishes in the first eight races to the year. But, he’s since been inconsistent and his future plans with Stewart-Haas Racing could hinder on if he makes the playoffs or not.

See, Joe Gibbs Racing cut ties with what I thought was too soon. He only had two years with the organization in the No. 19 Toyota. But, I get that they needed to keep Martin Truex Jr. in the Toyota family and Suarez was the weak link.

Now, he looks like the weak link with an organization that won 12 times in 2018. He’s the only SHR driver not in the playoffs and if he wants to be in, he likely needs to win.

Suarez, keeps sliding further and further behind the cutoff spot. He’s 31 points down now. But, this weekend’s race at Watkins Glen may be his best chance among the remaining five races to get in.

Suarez, has two top five finishes in two tries on the upstate New York road course. He was third in 2017 and fourth last year. He’s chasing a driver in Jimmie Johnson who has not scored a top five finish since 2012 in Watkins Glen. His last three finishes there are 40th, 29th and 30th respectively.

Ryan Newman is not much of a road course racer while Clint Bowyer has one top five in his last six Watkins Glen starts himself.

So, Suarez could make up some significant ground. I have a feeling though that making up ground is getting too far away. He needs to win. This is his best chance to do just that.

Next week it’s to Michigan to where Suarez has one top 10 finish in five career tries. That was a fourth place run back in June though. After that, it’s to Bristol where he has one top 10 in five tries an eighth place run in April. Then, it’s to Darlington where Suarez has finishes of 38th and 29th respectively. After that, it’s to Indy where he’s finished seventh and 18th respectively.

So, as you can see, the next three weeks are his best shots but Sunday is the best opportunity of the three to get it done.

Could Johnson Really Miss The Playoffs?

It was looking more and more likely that Jimmie Johnson would miss out on the postseason this year so they made a drastic change in hiring a new crew chief already.  Chad Knaus was Johnson’s crew chief for his first 17 years in NASCAR’s premiere series. Then, Kevin Meendering was hired to replace Knaus for 2019 but that relationship only lased 21 races. Now, for a second time in a little more than a half of a year, Johnson has a new crew chief in Cliff Daniels.

For a seven time Cup Series champion – that’s insane to think about. But, Johnson is currently in the midst of a three week string of finishes of 30th, 30th and 15th respectively heading into a track where he’s finished 40th, 29th and 30th respectively in his last three starts at the Watkins Glen International. This is one of three tracks that Johnson has never won at as well.

Currently, he’s 12 points behind the final bubble spot. If Daniel Suarez happens to win on Sunday, he can too with two top four finishes in as many tries in Watkins Glen, then Johnson falls even further back.

After Watkins Glen it’s to Michigan, a place where Johnson finished 15th in June and has just one top five finish at since 2012. Then, it’s to Bristol a spot that he can win out followed by Darlington and Indy, spots where he’s struggled at in the last few years too.

Johnson, likely needs to win to make it in. He hasn’t done so in 80 races. That speaks volumes.

Can Chase Elliott Get Going At Track He Won At Last Year?

At one point of the season, Chase Elliott looked like a championship contender. He won at Talladega back in April to kick off a five race string of a top five finish in each race. Unfortunately, his good finishes stopped then.

Since Michigan, Elliott has one top 15 finish in seven tries. Those last seven finishes are – 20th, 37th, 11th, 35th, 15th, 29th and 38th respectively. He heads to Watkins Glen as the defending race winner but also coming off of a practice crash last weekend in Pocono and a crash in the race itself en route to a last place finish.

He needs to end this spiral and Watkins Glen could be the place. He was fourth and first respectively in practice on Saturday.

Chip Ganassi Racing Could Have Big Day

The Chip Ganassi Racing Indy Car team went 1-2 last weekend in Mid-Ohio. Can they go 1-2 on another road course in a different series? I think so.

Kyle Larson enters Sunday’s race with four top 10 finishes in his last six starts on the season including three of which being top five results in his No. 42 Chevrolet. He finished sixth in this race last year and had a strong car at Sonoma back in June but went for stage points instead of a win. He can win on Sunday though in Watkins Glen.

So can Kurt Busch. While he did win at Kentucky a few weeks ago he’s in a bit of a slump too. Busch, has finished 10th or worse in five of his last six starts on the season in his No. 1 Chevrolet. But, Watkins Glen in a strong track for him. He has five top 10 finishes in his last six tries.

This could be a strong week for them.

Prediction

1. 19 Truex Jr. – Toyota’s look fast and Truex has had the most success on road courses lately. He’s had four top two finishes in his last five road course starts and the only reason it’s not five-for-five is because he was wrecked by Jimmie Johnson while leading on the final lap in the final corner last Fall on the ROVAL. Truex, has two straight top two finishes in Watkins Glen and won the last road course race in Sonoma back in June.
2. 18 KyBusch – Why not go another Toyota 1-2? They went 2-3-4-5 in this race last year, 1-2-3 last weekend in Pocono and 1-2 in June in Sonoma. Busch, was also second to Truex in Sonoma too. He was second and fifth respectively in practice this weekend and quickest on the 10 lap averages. Also, Busch has four straight top seven finishes in Watkins Glen.
3. 20 Jones – He’s a third place machine. Why not another? Jones, has three straight top three finishes on the year, two of which third place runs. He gets another on Sunday for his third top 10 result in as many tries at Watkins Glen.
4.  9 Elliott – He ends his drought with a top five. Elliott, won this race last year and was fourth and first respectively in practice.
5. 11 Hamlin – Why not all four JGR cars in the top five? Hamlin, has three straight top five finishes entering this weekend and gets a fourth in-a-row on Sunday.