NEWTON, IA – After racing just once in the last three weeks and twice since June 8, the NTT IndyCar Series is back in action this weekend for the middle of a string of three straight races. This one though is the lone oval for Saturday night’s Iowa 300 (7:30 p.m. ET/NBCSN/INDYCAR Radio Network).

How To Watch

Coverage – 7 p.m. ET

Green Flag – 7:15 p.m. ET

TV- NBCSN

Radio – INDYCAR Radio Network

Distance – 300 Laps/268.2 Miles

Defending Race Winner – James Hinchcliffe

Here are the main storylines.

Return To Saturday, But Won’t Be A Night Race

A wise decision was made for 2019 in that the Iowa 300 was moved back to a Saturday race on the schedule. See, while the hype was huge because these cars always put on a great show under the lights on the 7/8 mile oval in the past, the problem is, no one really looked closely at the start time. What they all saw was for the first time since 2015, the race on the Iowa bullring returns to a Saturday night show. From 2016 through 2018, the race was moved back to a Sunday afternoon event. That unfortunately was costly in terms of attendance.

A hot day at the track with a race not taking place until late Sunday afternoon didn’t give fans much leeway to travel to watch the race. Why not stay at home, wherever that may be, and sit in air conditioning and watch instead of travel from a far to bake in the sun and get back home close to midnight?

Graham Rahal wouldn’t have.

“The last two years of running on a Sunday at 5 o’clock, I mean that’s ridiculous,” Rahal said on Friday from Iowa. “I wouldn’t come to a race if I didn’t have to drive in it.

A Saturday race in Iowa makes the most sense. Rahal also agrees with that too. The problem is, the heat will still be around this weekend and unfortunately the race itself may not run under the lights. While this could be the fifth time that the race was ever held at night, I don’t think it will.

“We’re moving in the right direction,” Rahal continued. “If we can get the race next year on a more nighttime, it would be great. The time of year the daylight is so late, it’s a challenge.

The green flag for Saturday’s race is 6:15 p.m. locally, 7:15 p.m. ET. This race though, can run to completion in just under two hours, meaning the race should be done by 8:15 to 8:30 p.m. locally at the absolute latest.

Sunset for Saturday?

8:43 p.m. Iowa time.

That’s nearly 2 1/2 hours after the green flag is displayed. None of the past Indy Car races in Iowa have lasted that long.

Yes, the race could essentially run to completion before darkness even sets in. That means while it’s run later in the day, a still hot evening of action as temperatures are expected to soar into the mid 90’s for this weekend’s race.

Last year’s race was run from green flag to checkered flag in 1-hour and 47 minutes. In 2017, it was 1-hour and 55 minutes. 2016’s race was run three minutes shorter (1 hour and 52 minutes).

The only two races that lasted over two hours were coincidentally enough night races in 2014 and again in 2015. Both lasted barely over two hours with 2014 being 2-hours and 1 minute while 2015 was 2-hours and three minutes. That 2015 race is the longest in Indy Car history at Iowa.

From 2007 through 2013, the race was 50 miles shorter and none of which eclipsed the two hour mark in race duration. The longest was 1 hour and 53 minutes in 2012.

So, barring an unforeseen disaster on track, Saturday’s race won’t be a night race.

“They’re calling this a night race but basically it’s a late afternoon race,” said three-time Iowa winner Ryan Hunter-Reay.

“I don’t think it’s really going to be a night race,” defending series champion Scott Dixon said. “Sunset is around 8:40 and I think we will be done way before then. It’s just going to be that annoying sunlight in the eyes sort of thing.”

Speaking of that, some drivers are concerned about the potential to see the bright sun that will likely be shining in their eyes through Turns 3 and 4. Others are wary of shadows. They think that with dangerous racing, it could pose problems.

Others also say that there’s a reason they’re all in this series so they’re not concerned with other “professionals.”

Could Heat Be An Issue For Teams/Drivers

A heat wave unfortunately will take place this weekend in the midwest, meaning Saturday’s Iowa 300 will once again be a scorcher. What effect will this have on the teams?

It will certainly make things difficult for the crewmembers as it’s naturally hard to do work on a hot race car with conditions in the 90’s and a heat index well over 100 degrees.

The drivers, well at speed, they don’t notice the heat but it’s during yellow flag action to where the stagnant warm air becomes more noticeable. But, Iowa is also one of the more physically demanding tracks on the circuit, so while obviously still being in a hotter than normal race car and high g-forces without any breaks, it could be a race of attrition on Saturday.

As I stated above, while the race will be run on Saturday evening, it likely won’t be dark yet. So, the weather will be hot and the track will be slick.

Pole Winner Not The Race Winner But Pagenaud Doesn’t Car

Simon Pagenaud sent a message last weekend in Toronto. While most counted him and the other 20 NTT IndyCar Series drivers out of this year’s championship, the Team Penske driver showed us for a second time that of the year alone that not putting him in the title contending category was foolish.

Pagenaud, was fastest in practice last Friday and Saturday on the Canadian street course. He backed that up with winning the pole for last Sunday’s race. Last Sunday, he’d win that said race.

The Frenchman made up 22 points on his teammate Josef Newgarden as he went from 61 points behind to 39. Now, as he heads into Saturday’s Iowa 300 (7 p.m. ET/NBCSN/INDYCAR Radio Network) Pagenaud continued his hot streak.

He was second quickest in practice on Friday morning from the Iowa Speedway. He backed that up with earning the pole for Saturday evening’s race, his third of the season and 12th of his Indy Car career.

Another message sent.

See, Pagenaud has won two races in 2019, both came via a pole position. Both were close in the end but overall, pure domination. He led 116 of 200 laps in the Indianapolis 500. He also led 80 of 85 laps in the Honda Indy Toronto.

Furthermore, the last five poles for Pagenaud has resulted in four trips to victory lane. Overall, six of his 13 Indy Car victories have come from a starting position of – first. All six of those have come since 2016 too.

The problem for Pagenaud is, out of the 11 trips the series has made to the Newton area short track, none of the previous pole winners have won the actual race itself. Also, only twice has a driver on the front row even gone on to win the race.

In the NTT IndyCar Series these days though, track position has been so key. See, the cars are more than capable of passing, it’s just that the drivers piloting those cars are as good as ever. So, qualifying sessions in turn are as important, if not more important than ever too.

Takuma Sato led 74 of 90 laps from the pole in Barber back in April. A week later, Alexander Rossi led 80 of 85 laps in Long Beach. In May, Pageanud led led 116 of 200 laps in the Indy 500 and then last week he led 80 of the 85 laps in Toronto.

So, while pole winners have struggled here in the past, I don’t necessarily think it will be the case for Pagenaud this weekend.

Limited Cautions

Don’t expect to see a ton of stoppages on Saturday night. We only saw two yellow’s last year and have had five or fewer in literally every race this season. We saw just three yellows at Iowa in 2016 too. Since 2015, we’ve seen only six, three, four and two yellows respectively.

With how good these drivers are this year, I don’t think this trend changes either.

Newgarden Has Dixon And Rossi Frustrated This Weekend

Alexander Rossi and Scott Dixon knew that they had a tall task ahead of them for Saturday’s Iowa 300 (7 p.m. ET/NBCSN/INDYCAR Radio Network). See, Josef Newgarden has been the king of the Iowa Speedway lately. The Team Penske driver has led 623 laps over the last four years here including three top two finishes.

If they wanted to make up more ground on Newgarden this weekend, they need to be on top of their games. Unfortunately for them, this weekend isn’t going very well despite each starting in the top 10.

“Blah” is how Dixon describes it.

“Just kind of blah to be honest,” said Dixon after scoring an eighth place starting spot for Saturday’s race. We’ve been kind of fighting in both ends. (Turns) 1 and 2 we’ve been fighting understreer where (Turns) 3 and 4 our backend is stuck. I think the race is going to be very tough this year.”

Dixon, has never won at Iowa before. He has just one podium in his last seven starts on the .894-mile oval. He was 12th last year and has led just one lap here in his last four starts. While he’s almost 100 points out, he has to hope for some help which he doesn’t feel confident he’s going to get.

Neither does Rossi.

“Shitty,” Rossi says on how he thinks Saturday will play out. “I don’t think I have anything that I like right now to contend with and it’s going to be very hot tomorrow. We just have to get our heads down and figure it out. Just getting me more comfortable in the car. We’re just missing a lot to the top 3 cars. It’s a handful handling.”

Rossi, has also led just four laps over the last three years too. He has never finished on the lead lap in Iowa. He’s never finished in the top five either. After a sixth place qualifying run, he’s not confident at all.

The reason?

Josef Newgarden and Team Penske overall have been just that strong. They were nearly two mph quicker than the rest of the field in qualifying. They’ll start 1-2-3. They were also 1-2-3 in practice on Friday morning. Newgarden, was first in practice and third in quals. With his stats above, it’s why Dixon and Rossi are feeling how they are.

Iowa Isn’t Ganassi’s Strongest Tracks Anyways

You would think that Chip Ganassi Racing would be among the teams to beat in Iowa. Instead, they’re far from it. I can make a case to where Iowa is CGR’s worst track. They’ve won just two times in 12 years. The first came with Dan Wheldon in 2008 and the second a year later with Dario Franchitti.

Since 2010, they’ve been shut out of victory lane.

Felix Rosenqvist is obviously a rookie but he’s made it clear that ovals are not his favorite tracks to race on. He will only start 15th.

Scott Dixon has just one top five finish in his last four Iowa starts. He was 12th last year and has led only one lap since 2015. Furthermore, Dixon has three finishes of 12th or worse in his last six Iowa starts overall. He rolls off eighth.

With that, this makes Iowa make or break for Dixon in terms of the championship. He’s 86 points out and with Josef Newgarden and Andretti Autosport (Alexander Rossi) being great at Iowa in the past, this could be the race that eliminates him.

Andretti’s Advantage Went Away With Patches On Track

While Andretti Autosport hasn’t won at Iowa since 2015, they look to make things better on Saturday. But, they do know why they’re 0-for-3 after seven wins in the first nine years here.

It’s all in the patches.

See, the track is rough. Instead of going through a repave, they’ve patched areas of it. That is why Ryan Hunter-Reay thinks their advantage is gone. It’s why Graham Rahal, a driver for a rival team, thinks that Penske has now shined.

Alexander Rossi has failed to score a top five in his career at Iowa and has led just four total laps with zero lead lap finishes. He does have five top five finishes in his last six starts on the season including four top two finishes but says he’s having a “shitty” weekend thus far.

Ryan Hunter-Reay is the Iowa king himself with four top two finishes in a four year span between 2012 through 2015 to go along with a third place finish in 2017. But, his results with the patches have slipped.

Zach Veach has just one Iowa start (20th) where Marco Andretti’s last win came at Iowa in 2011. At one point, Andretti had four top three finishes in a six year span in Iowa.

So, while they’ve fallen a bit, they know why. Can Honda’s boost levels propel them back up?

Boost Levels Go Unnoticed For Most, Honda Feels Like It Could Be An Advantage

Team Penske has been untouchable this weekend at the Iowa Speedway. They were 1-2-3 in Friday morning’s NTT IndyCar Series practice as well as 1-2-3 in qualifying to set the field for Saturday’s Iowa 300 (7 p.m. ET/NBCSN/INDYCAR Radio Network) too.

But, the Honda drivers still feel like they have a potential advantage or at least feel like they can keep up with the bowties despite being nearly two full mph off in terms of pace in qualifying.

See, the initial practice saw the top speeds set in qual trim. Then, qualifying is just that, qualifying. It’s two laps around the .894-mile oval. The race on Saturday, is 300 Laps. It’s not about being fast for a handful of laps, you need to be quick for 300 circuits.

The Honda’s feel like they can keep up. They had the next nine best speeds in qualifying behind the Penske brigade. Then, with the added boost levels this year, it favors the Honda’s much better than the lower levels did, so much so, they think they could have a chance on Saturday evening.

“With the change to the 150 boost, it’s a boost range now to where the 140 where we had before were weakest of the three for us as a manufacturer,” said defending race winner James Hinchcliffe. “So, getting rid of it obviously puts us in a good spot. There’s still some quick cars with some other guys motors in them but we have a chance.”

Scott Dixon agrees. He says the Penske’s being quick in qualifying isn’t a surprise here. He expected that. It’s the long term pace that wins here and the boost levels that Honda’s have is a good range for them.

“I think that’s kind of normal for them to be honest,” said Dixon on Penske. “They have always had great short pace here. The boost is the same for everybody, this road course boost seems to be happier for the Honda’s.”

Plus, starting position has never seen to matter here. Never has a pole winner won in Iowa. Only twice has the second place starter won. Three of the last five winners have come from ninth or worse.

So, while Penske will obviously be the favorites, don’t count out the Honda’s either.

Iowa Could Be Track Where “Big 3” Doesn’t Win

The “Big 3” have obviously been the odds on favorites to win each Indy Car race this season. Heading into this weekend’s race at the Iowa Speedway, an Andretti, Penske or Ganassi driver has won eight straight races. If you go back to the start of the last season, the first with this new car, these three organizations have won 82-percent of the races (23 of 28).

On top of all of this, these three teams have won 10 of the 12 visits the series has taken to Iowa including the first nine years of this races’ existence.

But, this may be the week that someone new gets a turn.

Chip Ganassi Racing has struggled over the year in Iowa with only scoring two victories in 12 years. Their last win came a decade ago.

Scott Dixon finished 12th in last year’s race and has just one top five finish in his last four Iowa tries. His teammate Felix Rosenqvist obviously isn’t a fan of ovals and may not be much of a factor on Saturday night either.

Andretti Autosport may have seven wins in Iowa but they’ve scored none since 2015. Marco Andretti’s last win came on this track in 2011 but his last three finishes have been 14th or worse. Zach Veach was 20th last year while Ryan Hunter-Reay has two finishes of 19th or worse in his last three tries. Alexander Rossi has never scored a top five finish in Iowa, let alone finish on the lead lap.

So, that just leaves Penske. Simon Pagenaud has just one top five finish at Iowa in his last six tries. Will Power has two top fives in his last eight Iowa starts himself. Josef Newgarden is their top bet but he finished just fourth last year after leading 229 laps and sixth a year prior.

Meanwhile, Ed Carpenter Racing and Schmidt Peterson Motorsports have won in two of the last three years in Iowa and hungry for more.

Championship Race

The race for the Astor Cup championship trophy in the NTT IndyCar Series was looking like it likely would go through Josef Newgarden or Alexander Rossi. Just four points separate the two in the standings heading into this weekend’s Iowa 300.

But, Simon Pagenaud moved himself back in the hunt last weekend in Toronto. He moved from 61 points out to 39. Can he keep it up?

Saturday, could be the night that Newgarden pulls even further ahead though too.

Newgarden, has five straight top six finishes at Iowa including a dominating win in 2016 and two runner-ups prior to that. Over the last four years, he’s led 623 laps including 229 last year and 282 in 2016. He also led 111 laps in 2015 too.

With nine top four finishes in 11 races in 2019, this is the point where Newgarden can really make this an all American race for the title.

Then, look at this competition this weekend.

Rossi, has never finished on the lead lap in Iowa before and has just four combined laps led in three starts. He’s also never finished in the top five either.

Pagenaud, has three straight top eight finishes himself but has only led 13 career laps.

Scott Dixon has just one top five finish in his last four Iowa starts and only two in his last six starts overall at Iowa. He’s never won there as his team Chip Ganassi Racing has just two wins in 12 years at Iowa.

Takuma Sato finished third last year but does have five DNF’s in nine tries at Iowa. His third place result in 2018 is his lone top 10 of his career on the 7/8 mile bullring.

Will Power may be too far out.  Power, has three straight top six finishes and four consecutive top 10’s to his credit in Iowa.

Ed Carpenter Racing The Sleepers To Watch

While Team Penske may be the favorites on Saturday night, don’t sleep on Ed Carpenter Racing. Josef Newgarden led 282 of 300 laps in this race in 2016 and reached victory lane in his No. 21 Chevrolet with ECR.

JR Hildebrand took over this season a year later and finished runner-up. Last year, Spencer Pigot replaced Hildebrand and once again, brought this car home second.

Overall, the No. 21 entry for ECR has five straight top two finishes at Iowa. While Pigot may only have one top 10 finish over his last five starts on the season, you can’t overlook him on Saturday night.

What about his boss Ed Carpenter?

Carpenter, boasts seven top 10 finishes at Iowa including a 10th place run in 2018.

This could be a great weekend for ECR.

Can Tony Kanaan Regain Old Iowa Form?

Once upon a time, Tony Kanaan was the man to beat in Iowa. Kanaan, had a stretch of five straight podium finishes on the 7/8 mile short track including a win in 2010. But, he’s failed to score a top five in the four races since.

The popular Brazilian driver does have two top 10 finishes in his last three tries though. Can he make it a third on Saturday night?

AJ Foyt Racing has struggled to get Kanaan a good car to compete with. That’s no secret. He finished 17th a year ago. He has one top 10 finish all year. Will Sunday be his second?

Hinch, Rahal Sleepers To Watch Too

James Hinchcliffe comes to Iowa as the defending race winner. He led 45 laps in his win a year ago. Now, can he back it up? He has two career wins on the Iowa bullring in his last five tries. He led 226 laps in his win in 2013 too.

Also, Hinchcliffe has five straight top 10 finishes at Iowa and six in the last seven races overall. The popular Canadian driver has had a really fast race car this season as the result don’t reflect how good he’s really been.

Then there’s Graham Rahal. He has five straight top 10 finishes on the season and seven of the last eight overall. Rahal, also has two consecutive top seven finishes at Iowa including six top 10’s in his last seven tries.

Prediction

1. 2 Newgarden – The curse of the pole winner streak continues. But, that doesn’t stop Penske from winning. Newgarden, earns his second win in four years here and four top twos in six starts. He was first in practice and third in quals.
2. 22 Pagenaud – He doesn’t win but still gets a podium. It will be Pagenaud’s first podium in Iow and fourth straight top eight here.
3.  5 Hinchcliffe – The speed is there, he starts fifth. Plus, Hinchcliffe has five straight top 10 finishes entering this weekend here in Iowa.
4. 30 Sato – He qualified fourth and will bring his No. 30 Honda home with his second straight top five finish in Iowa.
5. 12 Power – Penske lands the setup right and Power gets his fourth straight top six finish in Iowa.