INDIANAPOLIS – Christmas in Indianapolis is almost here. Sunday’s 103rd Running of the Indianapolis 500 (11 a.m. ET/NBC/INDYCAR Radio Network) is on the horizon. After six days of practice and two days of qualifying to set the 33 car field for Sunday’s 200 Lap race, what can we expect?

Passing Should Be Better Up Front Compared To Last Year

Tony Kanaan says that this could be the best Indy 500 is over 18 years. See, he says the cars are so close, that no one stands out as a favorite. Everyone seems to agree. There’s not one driver who stands out about the rest. The field from top to bottom is arguably the best it’s ever been. That should contribute to a good race in itself.

It also seems unanimous that the race up front will be vastly different than what we saw here in last year’s race. The drivers have all said that battling for the lead will be easier to pass. Even third place getting by second will be rather easy. But, from fourth on back – well that will be harder.

See, the drivers all say that the cars have a much bigger draft and can close easier to the car in front this year than last year. That’s because of IndyCar adding downforce to the front of these cars to go along with Firestone bringing a new tire for Indy.

More downforce and a grippier tire means more passing.

But, the reason to why fourth on back is harder to pass is because that fifth place on back may have a run on fourth place but fourth place may still have a run on third place. If you pop out to pass, you get hit with a ton of air and the car gets draggy. The car in front of you pulls away because they’re still getting a tow while you’re not.

Up front, you have cleaner air and not the traffic in front to get a tow off of. Make sense? Expect to see more than 30 lead changes on Sunday.

Past Winners Want A Win More Than Ever

It’s one thing to want to taste the milk here. It’s another to have tasted the milk here in the past and want it again. See, all the past winners that have won here, say that the jealousy is almost greater when they leave here and to have not won the race than it was when they left here before they had won the race.

Indy is a place everyone wants to win at. The desire is stronger here than anywhere else. But, once you get a win, you don’t want anyone else to bask in the ambiance as the winner for the next 12 months. You want it to be yourself.

So, for the past winners in Sunday’s field, they will be extremely jealous if they don’t win, so much so, some avoid social media for a while.

Parity

We’ve seen five different race winners in as many races this season. If you go back to last year, that’s six straight different race winners and eight in the last nine races overall. In the ‘500, we’ve also seen eight straight years with a different winner too.

So, if parity continues, don’t expect Tony Kanaan, Ryan Hunter-Reay, Alexander Rossi, Takuma Sato, Will Power, Simon Pagenaud, Colton Herta or Josef Newgarden to win on Sunday.

Will Starting Position Matter?

In the aero kit era, starting position didn’t matter at Indy. But, with this universal car that debuted last year, it now does. Plus, starting in the top 2 Rows have been key for Indy Car success lately. Four of the five race winners in 2019 have come from the top four starting spots. Three of the last six Indy Car races overall have been won by the pole winner. Furthermore, nine of the last 11 and 10 of the last 12 overall have come from a top four starting spot.

While a pole winner hasn’t won the ‘500 since 2009, this favors Ed Carpenter Racing since they have all three of their cars starting in the top four but none of which on the pole itself.

Ed Carpenter Racing Seems To Be The Most Prepared

Everyone polled on Thursday said that Carb Day would be the most important practice session of the month. That’s because most of the practice days this May have been run in cooler conditions. When it got hotter last weekend, everyone was already on qualifying trim. When they got race levels back for Monday, the highs were in the 60’s with overcast conditions.

Carb Day is supposed to be hot, humid and in the 80’s. Race day is forecasted to be near 80. That’s why Carb Day is a key practice sessions as almost everyone said that they are looking for data.

Not one organization though.

Ed Carpenter Racing says that they have ran a lot this month and have data for whatever conditions Sunday throws at them. Run by themselves for clean air data in cool, hot, overcast, sunny? Got it. Run in a group in those conditions? Got it. Get shuffled back on race day and you think your car feels bad? They have data for how to get back to the front and how the car needs to be setup to do so.

Right now, everyone says that ECR and Team Penske are the ones to beat. After talking to everyone, ECR is the only group that seems this confident.

Honda vs. Chevy

Chevrolet had the preferred power in last year’s race. They swept the front row and led nearly 150 of the 200 Laps run. It was also their fourth win in the first six races of last year. In the 16 races since? They’ve won just four times.

Honda has won 12 of the last 16 Indy Car races and three of the last five Indy 500’s. While Chevy has five of the top six starters for this weekend’s race, Honda may have something up their sleeves in race conditions.

Watch Out For The “Big 3”

Penske, Andretti and Ganassi are the top three organizations in Indy Car. While we’ve seen parity in terms of the driver front lately, we haven’t seen the same for the teams. Combined, Penske and Andretti have won each of the last five Indy 500’s. Throw Ganassi in there, and these three organizations have won 12 of the last 14 ‘500’s overall and 16 of the last 19 (since 2000).

With the points above, whom does this favor? See down low for more. Plus, the last non Penske Chevrolet driver to win at Indy was Al Unser Jr. with Galles in 1992.

Ganassi, won three Indy 500’s in a five year span between 2008 and 2012 but have been shut out ever since. Felix Rosenqvist doesn’t look the part to win this year while Scott Dixon has his worst starting spot in the big race in his storied career. While he has four podium finishes in five tries this season to go along with three top eight finishes including a third place run last year in his last four Indy 500 starts, it doesn’t appear it will be in the cars for a Ganassi driver sipping the milk on Sunday.

That leaves Andretti who has plenty of big storylines if they can win. Again, like the Penske point, more on this later.

Rookie Winner? Not Likely

In the past 102 years of this race, only nine times has a rookie driver won. It’s happened three times in the last 52 years and only four times in the last 91 years. Plus, with Herta being eliminated from the point above as a winner this year, I don’t think this rookie class to can this race without some luck.

Repeat Winner? Not Likely

Power has the odds stacked against him this weekend. The last repeat winner was his teammate Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002. Helio, is the last repeat winner since Al Unser Sr. in 1970 and 1971. That’s two times this has happened in 64 years. Do you think it happens for the third time in 65 years?

Doubtful.

Rain?

Unfortunately, we have to mention the dreaded “r” word for Sunday’s race. Yes, rain is in the forecast as right now, as it looks like it will be 50-50 on if mother nature will interrupt the 103rd edition of the “Greatest Spectacle in Racing.”

If it does, Doug Boles, President of the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, says that contingency plans are obviously in place.

The start time for Sunday’s 200 Lap race is for approx. 12:45 p.m. ET. With the timing of rain up in the air right now, Boles says that there is a chance the start time could be moved up a bit, but as of now, it doesn’t seem likely.

See, tracks don’t like to move the time up much, if at all anyways. The reason is because it’s a logistical nightmare. You have to literally change the schedule around for everything. Then, you have to go through TV and Radio to even see if it’s an option to move up. On top of all of that, you can’t disrupt the fan experience. A majority of race fans have plans already in place. You can’t move the race up hours and risk a good portion of fans missing the start of the event itself.

While it’s an option, if it does get moved up, don’t expect it to be any more than an hour.

Then there’s this, what happens if the rain comes early and delays the start? Boles noted that the latest they could possibly start the race is 6 p.m. ET but even that he thinks is too late.

See, the race is typically completed around the three hour mark. That’s without many hassles. With sunset slated to be at 9:02 p.m. ET on Sunday, a start at 6 p.m. ET means the race will be ending just before night fall. That is a concern for Boles as he doesn’t want 300,000+ fans roaming the area without any lights in place for them to see.

That would be a huge nightmare for local law enforcement as well as track officials/security. So, realistically, the latest start time would be anywhere between 5 to 5:30 p.m. ET.

In order for that to happen, the rain would have to stop by 2 p.m. to 3 p.m. ET to realistically get the track dried in time. The new sealant on the track helps with getting the surface drier quicker. Just look at last Sunday as a prime example. But, it still needs to stop raining in order for it to work.

Boles also notes that ticket sales are comparable to 2018 and that we should see around 300k in attendance on Sunday. If we’re going to be up in terms of numbers and not flat, it would be dependent on a strong walk up crowd this weekend.

In terms of rain on race day, the race has been rained out just three times in 102 prior years. The first was in 1915 when the race being scheduled to run on Saturday, May 29, but was postponed a day early actually because of several recent rainstorms and was rescheduled for Monday, May 31.

See, for Sunday, all we have to get to is Lap 101 for this race to be official. Lets hope that doesn’t happen. No one wants to see half of a race.

The next time that was rain shortened was in 1986 when the race was rained out for two straight days. They didn’t actually start the race until the following Saturday, May 31.

The last time after that was in 1997 when we saw a complete postponement on race day itself, then only 15 laps run before rain settled in on Monday. The race was run to completion on Tuesday, May 27.

That’s it.

We have had partial postponements though. In 1967, the race was rained out after 18 laps and finished the next day. In 1973, the race was started on a Monday but after a lengthy delay for a first lap crash, it was postponed until the next day. Then, on the Tuesday portion, rain started falling on the second pace lap, delaying the race to Wednesday. That race was rain shortened as rain fell again on that day too.

Speaking of rain shortened races, we’ve only see that happen seven times, the last being in 2007 after 166 laps. Between that and 180 laps run before severe weather came through here in 2004, those are the only two instances in the last 43 years.

In the 70’s, 1973 (133 laps), 1975 (174 laps) and 1976 (102 laps) were shortened for rain. Prior to that, it was 1926 (160 Laps) and 1950 (138 Laps) that were rain shortened races.