Stop me if you’ve heard this before – Team Penske, Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing are the teams to beat in this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race at the Richmond Raceway. Oh wait, you have?

Of course you have.

We’re eight races into the 2019 season and Penske and JGR have won all eight of them. If you go back to the final two races of the 2018 campaign, these organizations won those as well. Combined, that’s 10 straight.

If you look at how strong SHR has been and their win in the third to last race of 2018 and you get these three organizations with 11 straight Cup wins. Why would it stop in the ninth race of the season in Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400 (7 p.m. ET/FOX/MRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)?

The oddsmakers have them all listed as the favorites. The only driver not of their group to be among the top favorites is Chase Elliott at +1000.

So, here are the ones to bet on and whom not to wager on this weekend.

Kyle Busch (+225)

These odds are very low but do you really want to pick against him? After all, it’s about winning money right? Busch, had a bad car last weekend in Bristol and he still won. On short tracks this season, he’s won two of the three (Phoenix, Bristol) and was third (Martinsville) in the other.

Busch just earned his third win of this season to go along with a top 10 in all eight races. At Richmond, he’s won six times to go along with 20 top 10 finishes in 27 tries. He swept both races in his No. 18 Toyota a year ago. Also, Busch has four top two finishes in his last seven Richmond tries.

He’s also won five of the last nine spring races on the .75-mile Virginia oval to go along with 11 top five finishes in 13 spring race starts at Richmond. Furthermore, he has eight top two finishes in that same time frame.

Joey Logano (+700)

Two years ago, Penske finished 1-2 in the spring race. Yes, the race was run in the heat of the day and yes, it resulted in an encumbered finish, but Richmond has been kind to both Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski these days.

Logano, has three top four finishes in his No. 22 Ford in his last four Richmond starts. Furthermore, he’s scored nine top 10’s in his last 10 tries. He was third last weekend in Bristol and has four top four finishes already in 2019.

Brad Keselowski (+700)

Keselowski, hasn’t finished worse than 11th at Richmond since the spring race in 2015. Since 2014, the Michigan native has scored seven top 10 finishes in 10 starts in his No. 2 Ford. Out of his last seven starts on the season, he has four top three finishes.

Kevin Harvick (+700)

He’s due for a win. Harvick, has finished in the top five in seven of his last nine Richmond starts. In fact, five of those seven were fifth place finishes. He was fifth in the spring race last year and runner-up in the playoff race. Yes, he only has three top fives this season and none since Fontana, I’d watch out for his No. 4 Ford on Saturday night.

Denny Hamlin (+800)

Hamlin has two wins on the season to go along with a top 11 finish in all eight races run. He’s also scored a top six finish in six of his last seven Richmond starts to go along with a win in 2016. He has three overall wins in Richmond and was third in the spring race last year.

Great Value Bets

Chase Elliott (+1000)

If anyone other than JGR or Penske is going to win, it appears that Hendrick Motorsports may be the best bet. Chase Elliott finished second last month in Martinsville and appeared to have a car just as good, if not stronger than race winner’s Brad Keselowski. Elliott, finished second and fourth respectively at Richmond last year and has three straight top 10 finishes overall on the track in his No. 9 Chevrolet.

Clint Bowyer (+2000)

Clint Bowyer scored two top 10 finishes at Richmond last year and enters on the heels of three top seven finishes in his last three starts on the season.

Aric Almirola (+2000)

He’s off to his best start of his NASCAR career to go along with finishing fifth in the fall race last year. Almirola, also has two top 10 finishes at Richmond in his days with Richard Petty Motorsports too.

Jimmie Johnson (+2000)

Johnson could even shine too. He finished sixth and eighth respectively last year in his No. 48 Chevrolet to go along with a top 11 finish in his last nine Richmond starts. He’s starting to heat up on the season and is a driver that could end his winless drought on Saturday.

Kurt Busch (+2000)

Busch enters this weekend with a top 10 finish in all but two races in 2019. Busch, also is a past winner of the spring race in Richmond as well as has five top 11 finishes in his last six tries. For these odds, yes.

Daniel Suarez (+6000)

Suarez, also has been hot as of late in improving his finishes in each of the last four weeks. He has three top 12 finishes in four Richmond starts.

Ryan Newman (+6000)

He’s been fast this year and has six top 11 finishes in his last 11 starts at Richmond including being seventh and third respectively in the two races in 2017. Newman, was in the hunt at the end of last weekend’s race at Bristol as well with entering this weekend with two straight top 11 finishes.

Don’t Touch

Martin Truex Jr. (+800)

Yes, he’s with JGR but these odds are too low for how bad he’s struggled overall in Richmond. Truex, only has scored two top five finishes on the .75-mile oval since 2008. Yes, he does have four top 10 finishes in his last six races overall at Richmond and has even led over 100 laps in four of his last five races, with these odds and three of his last four finishes at Richmond being 10th or worse and zero top five finishes over his last four starts on the season to go along with two straight outside of the top 10, I don’t feel comfortable picking him yet.

Ryan Blaney (+1200)

For whatever reason, Blaney has just has struggled in Richmond. In six career Cup Series starts, he has never finished in the top 15, let alone led a lap.

Kyle Larson (+2000)

Larson hasn’t won a race since the fall race at Richmond in 2017 and is looking to end that drought on the same track where he last tasted victory in a Cup car. Larson, finished seventh in his No. 42 Chevrolet in both races last year and has four top seven finishes overall in his last five Richmond starts. But, he’s struggled this season too with failing to score a single top five yet and his last four finishes being 12th, 18th, 39th and 19th respectively. I don’t trust him yet.

Erik Jones (+2500)

Another JGR driver here but he’s never scored a top five finish before in Richmond. In fact, he has one top 10 in four tries. Jones, was 13th and 11th respectively last year to go along with five finishes of 13th or worse in his last six starts on the season.

Alex Bowman (+10000)

He finished eighth in this race last year and 12th in the fall race in his No. 88 Chevrolet but has yet to score a top 10 finish this season.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+10000)

He hasn’t scored a top 10 finish since Vegas. In fact, his last top 15 came via a 14th place finish in Fontana. Also, Stenhouse has just one career top 10 finish in Richmond. He was 23rd and 13th respectively last year too.