DAYTONA BEACH, Fla – We’ll officially set the field for Sunday’s 61st Annual Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET/FOX/MRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) on Thursday night at the World Center of Speed. The annual Gander RV Duels in Daytona (7 p.m. ET/FS1/MRN/SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) will once again set the starting positions for 40 drivers as well as send two more home.

That’s a big storyline in itself.

But, there are others too.

4 Drivers Going For 2 Spots

After a one year hiatus, the Duels will mean something again in terms of drivers racing their ways into the big show. Last year, we saw 40 drivers show up for 40 spots. There wasn’t much of an incentive to race hard. Everyone would be racing in the ‘500. Why unnecessarily tear up some equipment?

This year, we have six open cars where two of which are already guaranteed spots into the ‘500 due to their qualifying speeds. Both Tyler Reddick and Casey Mears are locked in right now. But, we have Parker Kligerman and Ryan Truex battling in the first Duel and Brendan Gaughan and Joey Gase going against each other in the second 60 Lap race.

Four enter, two will go home.

Points On The Line

Once again, 20 drivers will leave Thursday night with points in their pockets. Like in the last few years, the top 10 in each race will score points once the checkered flag drops.

The winner of each Duel gets 10 points. The second place finisher in each will get nine. The third place driver will receive eight, fourth will get seventh and so on down to one point for 10th place.

Will drivers elect to go after the points in the end or just play it conservative and make sure their cars get to the Daytona 500 in once piece?

Starting Position Matters For Daytona 500 So Scoring Points Thursday Will Help

Normally, starting positions for a restrictor plate race is just a number. When cars are running in a pack drafting with one another, why does it matter where you come from? Well, what if I told you that the last seven years have seen the Daytona 500 winner come from the first 7 Rows? In fact, its actually happened nine times since 2008.

The weird thing is, since 2001, we haven’t actually seen the Daytona 500 winner come from the front row. So, if you finish in the top seven in your Duel, you have a much greater chance of winning the ‘500 on Sunday.

Hendrick/JGR/Penske Cars The Favorites

Since 2005, Hendrick, Gibbs and Penske cars have combined to win all but 16 races during Daytona Speedweeks. Furthermore, they’ve won all but four races since 2013 at Daytona in February. They’re clearly the ones to beat on Thursday night.

Between the trio of teams, they’ve won the last 11 Duels in Daytona. Hendrick and Gibbs each have five trips to victory lane a piece while Penske has one.

HMS has won 10 Duels since 2005 including at least one each year since 2015. Chase Elliott has won a Duel in each of the last two years and will start on the front row in Duel No. 2.

HMS will also share the front row in each of the two Duels too. With track position being key, I can them keeping their streak going into 2020.

JGR will have a shot as well with Denny Hamlin landing in victory lane twice since 2014 and Kyle Busch as many times since 2013. They’ll likely be strong.

Ryan Blaney won for Penske last year where his teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano will be starting up front in their respective races on Thursday night.

Will Hendrick Have The Right Package?

HMS has that winning streak going in the Duels but do they have the right package to continue it? Last year, they were fast in qualifying and strong in the Duels but struggled in the Daytona 500. This year, their drivers are saying the speed as well as the handling is there.

Jimmie Johnson won in a controversial way on Sunday but the key is he won.

With the Duels being a night race, I can see HMS contending for both wins on Thursday night and being at the very least 2-for-3 during Speedweeks.

What Kind Of Racing Will We See?

The Clash was ho-hum again this year. We saw single file racing all day last Sunday. Will Thursday night be the same?

My guess is, yes.

No one wants to tear up a bunch of equipment. 38 of the 42 drivers know they have a guaranteed starting spot in the field. While points are on the line, are they worth the risk?

That’s why I have a feeling a majority of the 60 Laps in each Duel will be single file again. Why push it early? You need to be there in the end after all. With the drivers on Sunday saying one of the reasons for the single file racing being the cooler temperatures and max grip levels, they could trim out and still have enough grip in their Goodyear tires to stick to the banking. Thursday night will be even cooler, so mix that with races not being won in the first 45-50 Laps, why make any dangerous moves early?

Then, if the drivers all go to the high line, it’s going to be a parade. Some of the drivers were saying that this new restrictor plate package at Daytona and Talladega only allows using the side draft on the right side of these cars. When they’re all running up against the SAFER barriers in the banking, how can you side draft?

The engines are wound up running the high line and if you pull out to go low, you lose the momentum.

I think the racing on Thursday will be less than desired.

Maybe we will get good finishes.

Expect Quick Races

The two Duels should wrap up fairly quickly. Five of the last six Duels have run to completion in less than one hour and 10 of the last 14. In fact, the longest Duel since 2009 came just last year in the first Duel which lasted 1-hour, 8-minutes and 25-seconds.

With an expected tame night, I can’t see either Duel lasting past an hour.